Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The study aimed at interpreting the role of architectural design quality in in build competitiveness model in accordance with the proposal included the idea of architectural design quality for its removal; interesting design factors of the environment, good design of the spaces, and design aesthetic explanatory variable. The competitiveness dimensions; the level of innovation, stimulate research, and the quality of the company's products, and activating the role of human resources, entrepreneurship, profitability, market share and competitiveness, variable responsive. The study of construction companies in the Ministry of Housing and Construction has taken the Iraqi society for the study. The sample consisted of (48) manage
... Show MoreNew series of 4,4'-((2-(Aryl)-1H-benzo[d]imidazole-1,3(2H)-diyl)bis(methylene))Diphenol(3a-g) was successfully synthesized from cyclization of the reduction product of bis Schiff bases (2) with aryl aldehydes bearing phenolic hydroxyl in the presence of acetic acid. The structure of these compounds was identified from FT-IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR and EIMs. The Antioxidant capability was screened by DPPH and FRAP assays. Both assays showed antioxidant capability more than BHT as well. Compounds 3b and 3c showed antioxidant capacity slightly less than ascorbic acid. The docking study for theses compound was carried out as III DNA polymerase inhibitor. The results of docking demonstrated that the increase in hinderances around phenolic hydr
... Show MoreIn this work, (CdO)1-x (CoO)x thin films were prepared on glass slides by laser-induced plasma using Nd:YAG laser with (λ=1064 nm) and duration (9 ns) at different laser energies (200-500 mJ) with ratio (x=0.5), The influence of laser energy on structural and optical properties has been studied. XRD patterns show the films have a structure of polycrystalline wurtzite. As for AFM tests results for the topography of the surface of the film, where the results showed that the grain size and the average roughness increase with increasing laser energy. The optical properties of all films were also studied and the results showed that the absorption coefficient for within the wavelength range (280-1100 nm), The value of the optical power gap fo
... Show MoreThe research section tagged (Aesthetics of Abstract Expressionism and its Representations in the Artistic Products of Students of the Department of Art Education) into four chapters and it included in..
The first chapter: (the methodological framework) for the research, and the research problem is summarized through the question (what are the aesthetics of abstract expressionism and its representations in the artistic productions of the students of the Department of Art Education). In the products of students of the Department of Art Education).
The aim of the research was (discovering the aesthetics of abstract expressionism and its representations in the artistic products of the students of the Department of Art Education). As we
The practice of art is an inevitable result imposed by the circumstances surrounding the human being, as he needs some knowledge associated with raw materials, tools and methods to develop skills in the formation of elements of the work of art in new ways that give a decent artistic appearance to the work of art. Through the exploratory study carried out by the researcher, which included asking the following question to the third grade students, Department of Art Education:
What types of materials are used in handicrafts and from which sources are they obtained? Through the answers, the problem of research was founded as follows:
-Are the products of students of the Department of Art Education in the handicraft material d
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreUse of lower squares and restricted boxes
In the estimation of the first-order self-regression parameter
AR (1) (simulation study)
In this study, we investigate about the run length properties of cumulative sum (Cusum) and The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts, to detect positive shifts in the mean of the process for the poisson distribution with unknown mean. We used markov chain approach to compute the average and the standard deviation for run length for Cusum and EWMA control charts, when the variable under control follows poisson distribution. Also, we used the Cusum and the EWMA control charts for monitoring a process mean when the observations (products are selected from Al_Mamun Factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from poisson distribution i
... Show MoreAbstract As the United Nations approaches its 70th anniversary, the world is going through the most severe accumulation of serious international security failures in recent memory, challenging the UN Security Council’s ability to address them effectively. Over the past four years, crises in Libya, Syria and Ukraine have precipitated a worrisome erosion of great power relations that has complicated Security Council decision making on a number of trouble spots. Its inability to devise consensus responses to the escalating civil war in Syria has been particularly troubling, resulting in the regional spill over into Iraq and the emergence of Islamic State as a new threat to peace in the region and beyond. Meanwhile, the UN’s often under
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