The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
Sovereign wealth funds are an important tool for achieving economic stability and avoiding the local economy from external shocks, including the shocks of international oil prices. The spread of these funds is the result of large current account surpluses in many Asian and oil-exporting economies. These surpluses are due to higher commodity prices Has led to a rapid accumulation of foreign assets in central banks. Many countries with rent economies face the problem of their dependence on non-renewable natural resources, especially the oil countries, including Iraq. Oil revenues are more than 97% of oil exports, so they suffer from structural imbal
... Show Moreتعد لوحات السيطرة الخاصة بالمراقبة والسيطرة على نوعية الانتاج احدى الاساليب العلمية الاحصائية التي تستخدم لمراقبة سير العملية الانتاجية اثناء سيرالعنلية الانتاجية اثناء سيرها في مراحل الانتاج والتي عادة ما تتكون من حد وسطي وحدين اعلى وادنى للسيطرة على نوعية ودقة الانتاج متمثلا بقيم عددية . ومن ثم فان العملية الانتاجية اما ان تكون تحت السيطرة او خارجها بالاعتماد على قيم المشاهادات العددية. وفي بعض الاحيا
... Show MoreThis paper deals with a new Henstock-Kurzweil integral in Banach Space with Bilinear triple n-tuple and integrator function Ψ which depends on multiple points in partition. Finally, exhibit standard results of Generalized Henstock - Kurzweil integral in the theory of integration.
: Summary The establishment of the modern Iraqi state necessitated the establishment of diplomatic relations with neighboring countries. However, during the British Mandate period, these relations remained under the management of the British Embassy, which assumed responsibility for Iraq's foreign affairs. As the political situation evolved, the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs began making strenuous efforts to build a competent and effective diplomatic apparatus. Iraqi diplomatic representatives played an active role in strengthening and developing Iraq's foreign relations by implementing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' directives, which focused on monitoring political, economic, and social developments in neighboring countries. This app
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The research Compared two methods for estimating fourparametersof the compound exponential Weibull - Poisson distribution which are the maximum likelihood method and the Downhill Simplex algorithm. Depending on two data cases, the first one assumed the original data (Non-polluting), while the second one assumeddata contamination. Simulation experimentswere conducted for different sample sizes and initial values of parameters and under different levels of contamination. Downhill Simplex algorithm was found to be the best method for in the estimation of the parameters, the probability function and the reliability function of the compound distribution in cases of natural and contaminateddata.
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This paper studies the oscillation properties and asymptotic behavior of all solutions of the 2×2 system of second-order half-linear neutral differential equations. Four results are obtained in this research. The first and second results are auxiliary results while the third and fourth results are main results. All possible cases of non-oscillating bounded solutions for this system are estimated and analyzed. It is noted that the parameters that affect the volatility of the solutions are Qi,Ri on the one hand and r1 and r2 on the other hand. For this purpose, and through investigation, it is shown that there are only fourteen possible cases of non-oscillating bounded solutions for this system, so all these cases must be treated, in the fir
... Show MoreThis research deals with a shrinking method concernes with the principal components similar to that one which used in the multiple regression “Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection: LASS”. The goal here is to make an uncorrelated linear combinations from only a subset of explanatory variables that may have a multicollinearity problem instead taking the whole number say, (K) of them. This shrinkage will force some coefficients to equal zero, after making some restriction on them by some "tuning parameter" say, (t) which balances the bias and variance amount from side, and doesn't exceed the acceptable percent explained variance of these components. This had been shown by MSE criterion in the regression case and the percent explained v
... Show MoreThis study presents a detailed morphology and taxonomic study of Polysiphonia subtilissima collected from Abdul Rehman Goth, Karachi coast, Pakistan. Polysiphonia is a filamentous heterotrichous red algae, characterized by its branching structures and attachment mechanisms. P. subtilissima is notable for its broad salinity tolerance and wide distribution across marine and freshwater ecosystems. This research provides an in-depth examination of the internal and external structures of P. subtilissima, contributing to its systematic study and documenting its first recorded occurrence in Pakistani coastal areas, bordering the northern Arabian Sea. The findings enhance the understanding of the species taxonomy and its ecological role in
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