The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
The health section is considered to be one of the most important section in the field of service economical and social unit because of its concern in the life of human begin and society and the process of determining t
... Show More: Summary The establishment of the modern Iraqi state necessitated the establishment of diplomatic relations with neighboring countries. However, during the British Mandate period, these relations remained under the management of the British Embassy, which assumed responsibility for Iraq's foreign affairs. As the political situation evolved, the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs began making strenuous efforts to build a competent and effective diplomatic apparatus. Iraqi diplomatic representatives played an active role in strengthening and developing Iraq's foreign relations by implementing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' directives, which focused on monitoring political, economic, and social developments in neighboring countries. This app
... Show MoreSeveral attempts have been made to modify the quasi-Newton condition in order to obtain rapid convergence with complete properties (symmetric and positive definite) of the inverse of Hessian matrix (second derivative of the objective function). There are many unconstrained optimization methods that do not generate positive definiteness of the inverse of Hessian matrix. One of those methods is the symmetric rank 1( H-version) update (SR1 update), where this update satisfies the quasi-Newton condition and the symmetric property of inverse of Hessian matrix, but does not preserve the positive definite property of the inverse of Hessian matrix where the initial inverse of Hessian matrix is positive definiteness. The positive definite prope
... Show MoreThrough this research, We have tried to evaluate the health programs and their effectiveness in improving the health situation through a study of the health institutions reality in Baghdad to identify the main reasons that affect the increase in maternal mortality by using two regression models, "Poisson's Regression Model" and "Hierarchical Poisson's Regression Model". And the study of that indicator (deaths) was through a comparison between the estimation methods of the used models. The "Maximum Likelihood" method was used to estimate the "Poisson's Regression Model"; whereas the "Full Maximum Likelihood" method were used for the "Hierarchical Poisson's Regression Model
... Show MoreАннотация
Взгляд на пол как на комплексное социальное отношение означает,что роль женщины в истории следует рассматривать не просто как новый для исторической науки предмет исследования, а как обойденный вниманием ученых вопрос об отношениях между людьми или группами людей.
Женщина играет особую и важную роль в обществе , даже скажут ,что она половина нашего общества ,поэтому она яв
... Show Moreتعد لوحات السيطرة الخاصة بالمراقبة والسيطرة على نوعية الانتاج احدى الاساليب العلمية الاحصائية التي تستخدم لمراقبة سير العملية الانتاجية اثناء سيرالعنلية الانتاجية اثناء سيرها في مراحل الانتاج والتي عادة ما تتكون من حد وسطي وحدين اعلى وادنى للسيطرة على نوعية ودقة الانتاج متمثلا بقيم عددية . ومن ثم فان العملية الانتاجية اما ان تكون تحت السيطرة او خارجها بالاعتماد على قيم المشاهادات العددية. وفي بعض الاحيا
... Show MoreMalware represents one of the dangerous threats to computer security. Dynamic analysis has difficulties in detecting unknown malware. This paper developed an integrated multi – layer detection approach to provide more accuracy in detecting malware. User interface integrated with Virus Total was designed as a first layer which represented a warning system for malware infection, Malware data base within malware samples as a second layer, Cuckoo as a third layer, Bull guard as a fourth layer and IDA pro as a fifth layer. The results showed that the use of fifth layers was better than the use of a single detector without merging. For example, the efficiency of the proposed approach is 100% compared with 18% and 63% of Virus Total and Bel
... Show MoreProject management are still depending on manual exchange of information based on paper documents. Where design drawings drafting by computer-aided design (CAD), but the data needed by project management software can not be extracted directly from CAD, and must be manually entered by the user. The process of calculation and collection of information from drawings and enter in the project management software needs effort and time with the possibility of errors in the transfer and enter of information. This research presents an integrated computer system for building projects where the extraction and import quantities, through the interpretation of AutoCAD drawing with MS Access database of unit costs and productivities for the pricing and
... Show MoreThe present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders
... Show MoreTitanium alloys are broadly used in the medical and aerospace sectors. However, they are categorized within the hard-to-machine alloys ascribed to their higher chemical reactivity and lower thermal conductivity. This aim of this research was to study the impact of the dry-end-milling process with an uncoated tool on the produced surface roughness of Ti6Al4V alloy. This research aims to study the impact of the dry-end milling process with an uncoated tool on the produced surface roughness of Ti6Al4V alloy. Also, it seeks to develop a new hybrid neural model based on the training back propagation neural network (BPNN) with swarm optimization-gravitation search hybrid algorithms (PSO-GS