The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This paper was conducted to identifying the body growth averages for the infants of the age (3-6) months and their relation with brest (natural ) or artificial feeding The results showed that the higher percentage was for the infants with the natural feeding in comparison with those of the artificial or mixed feeding. Also there was a clear increase in the average of the body growth for those with the natural feeding and such results were closer to the standard criterion. While the averages of body growth for those with the artificial or mixed feeding were low. In addition, it was clear that the averages of body growth of the i
... Show MoreExponential distribution is one of most common distributions in studies and scientific researches with wide application in the fields of reliability, engineering and in analyzing survival function therefore the researcher has carried on extended studies in the characteristics of this distribution.
In this research, estimation of survival function for truncated exponential distribution in the maximum likelihood methods and Bayes first and second method, least square method and Jackknife dependent in the first place on the maximum likelihood method, then on Bayes first method then comparing then using simulation, thus to accomplish this task, different size samples have been adopted by the searcher us
... Show MoreBy driven the moment estimator of ARMA (1, 1) and by using the simulation some important notice are founded, From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA (1, 1) model that is: when the sign is positive means the root gives invertible model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertible model. An alternative method has been suggested for ARMA (0, 1) model can be suitable when
This paper aims to propose a hybrid approach of two powerful methods, namely the differential transform and finite difference methods, to obtain the solution of the coupled Whitham-Broer-Kaup-Like equations which arises in shallow-water wave theory. The capability of the method to such problems is verified by taking different parameters and initial conditions. The numerical simulations are depicted in 2D and 3D graphs. It is shown that the used approach returns accurate solutions for this type of problems in comparison with the analytic ones.
The study aimed to identify the use of the electronic concept maps method in learning some of the skills of the floor exercises in the artistic gymnastics for third graders ,as well as to identify the best group between the two research groups (experimental And the officer to learn and retain some of the skills of the floor exercises in the artistic gymnastics of the research subject , and the experimental method was used and included the sample research on students of the collage of Physical Education and Sports Sciences/University of Baghdad, third grade, and has selected (10) Students for each group of The experimental and controlling groups randomly by lottery and after the completion of the period of implementation of the experiment wh
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The aim of this research is to identify the effectiveness of thinking skills in developing the life skills of the students of the first Academic year, particularly the differences in life skills according to the variable of study specialization (human-scientific). To achieve the research objectives, the life skills scale was constructed on the classification of (WHO). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined. The validity of the scale, which is the final form of (60) items, was valid for measuring the life skills. The scale was then applied to the research sample of (112) students of the first year of the University of Bisha. The SPSS program processed
... Show MoreThe paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM), and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used
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Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
... Show MoreThis work studies the role of serum apelin-36 and Glutathione S-transferases (GST) activity in association with the hormonal, metabolic profiles and their link to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in healthy and patients' ladies with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of fifty-four (PCOS) patients and thirty-one healthy woman as a control have been studied. The PCOS patients were subdivided on the basis of body-mass-index (BMI), into 2-subgroups (the first group was obese-PCOS with BMI ≥ 30 and the second group was non-obese PCOS MBI<30). Fasting-insulin-levels and Lipid-profile, Homeostatic-model assessment-of-insulin-resistance (HOMA-IR), follicle-stimulating-hormone (FSH), luteinizing-hormone (LH), testosterone and
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