The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
In this paper, The transfer function model in the time series was estimated using different methods, including parametric Represented by the method of the Conditional Likelihood Function, as well as the use of abilities nonparametric are in two methods local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method, This research aims to compare those capabilities with the nonlinear transfer function model by using the style of simulation and the study of two models as output variable and one model as input variable in addition t
... Show MoreA perturbed linear system with property of strong observability ensures that there is a sliding mode observer to estimate the unknown form inputs together with states estimation. In the case of the electro-hydraulic system with piston position measured output, the above property is not met. In this paper, the output and its derivatives estimation were used to build a dynamic structure that satisfy the condition of strongly observable. A high order sliding mode observer (HOSMO) was used to estimate both the resulting unknown perturbation term and the output derivatives. Thereafter with one signal from the whole system (piton position), the piston position make tracking to desire one with a simple linear output feedback controller after ca
... Show MoreWe have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreMy research tagged [the lights of the statement in the first part of the Koran] came to show that the dear book was developed according to a precise linguistic system is not increased by a word or letter or movement - Aldmh and Kira and the hole - and does not lack anything of it except with the wisdom required by the meanings of the Koranic text or Sura generally . The Koran does not come falsehood from his hands or from behind it is infallible and preserved; because it was revealed by the sage Hamid Hamid ﭽﮗ ﮘ ﮙ ﮚ ﮛ ﮜ ﮝ ﮞ ﭼ [stone]. The Qur'an is safe from any verbal or moral dominance and dominates all the heavenly books and exists at any time and place that speaks the truth ﭽ ﯛ ﯜ ﯝ ﯞ ﯟ ﯹ ﯺﭼ [The
... Show MoreBy driven the moment estimator of ARMA (1, 1) and by using the simulation some important notice are founded, From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA (1, 1) model that is: when the sign is positive means the root gives invertible model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertible model. An alternative method has been suggested for ARMA (0, 1) model can be suitable when
In this research, an experimental study was conducted to high light the impact of the exterior shape of a cylindrical body on the forced and free convection heat transfer coefficients when the body is hold in the entrance of an air duct. The impact of changing the body location within the air duct and the air speed are also demonstrated. The cylinders were manufactured with circular, triangular and square sections of copper for its high thermal conductivity with appropriate dimensions, while maintaining the surface area of all shapes to be the same. Each cylinder was heated to a certain temperature and put inside the duct at certain locations. The temperature of the cylinder was then monitored. The heat transfer coefficient were then cal
... Show MoreThis study aimed at revealing the degree of availability of standards of word problems in mathematics books for the first three grades of the basic stage in Palestine. For this purpose, the researcher prepared an analysis tool and a list of criteria consisting of two areas: linguistic formulation and mathematical content. Every area had seven items. The results of the study showed that the third-grade mathematics book has the highest degree of availability of the standards with 85.75%, and then came the second-grade mathematics book with 83.12%. Finally, the first-grade mathematics book came with 80.13%. In the light of the previous results, the researcher recommended to develop the language of word problems, to take into account their i
... Show MoreIn this paper, the theoretical cross section in pre-equilibrium nuclear reaction has been studied for the reaction at energy 22.4 MeV. Ericson’s formula of partial level density PLD and their corrections (William’s correction and spin correction) have been substituted in the theoretical cross section and compared with the experimental data for nucleus. It has been found that the theoretical cross section with one-component PLD from Ericson’s formula when doesn’t agree with the experimental value and when . There is little agreement only at the high value of energy range with the experimental cross section. The theoretical cross section that depends on the one-component William's formula and on-component corrected to spi
... Show MoreDengke Naniura is a traditional food from Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, that is produced through fermenting process, and this food is believed to contain high probiotics. The objective of the current research is to determine the potential of LAB as a probiotic that has been obtained from Dengke Naniura. Dengke Naniura was traditionally prepared from Cyprinus carpio. Four LABs have been successfully isolated from Dengke Naniura, such as D7DA3, D7B3, D7DBF and D7DN3. Those four LAB isolates were identified as Lactobacillus sp. This result has been confirmed by the non-spore forming bacterium, non-motile, and Gram-positive. Also, it has been supported by biochemical test, for the example Voges Proskauer, catalase test, Methyl
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