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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use special Erwa to determine the number of live bacteria in different models
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Used in the study especially calibrated Erwa to determine the number of neighborhood or the Alayoshi number of bacteria in the count modeling and casting method dishes in addition to using the drop method yielded significant results for a match between the methods used ..

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using stress tests to manage credit concentration risks: An applied research in Sumer Commercial Bank
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The research aims to identify banking stress tests, which is one of the modern and important tools in managing banking risks by applying the equations of that tool to the sample. The banking sector considered one of the most vulnerable to sudden and rapid changes in an unstable economic environment, making it more vulnerable. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a special risk management section to reduce the banking risks of the banking business that negatively affect its performance.

The research concluded that there is a direct relationship between stress tests and risk management, as stress tests are an essential tool in risk management. They also considered a unified approach in managing bank risks that helps the bank to

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Over application courier company (DHL) to keep the quality of service to achieve customer satisfaction the adoption of precedence delivery time - A prospective study))
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Over application courier company (DHL) to keep the quality of service to achieve customer satisfaction the adoption of precedence delivery time - A prospective study))

Become attention to quality is a global phenomenon, and I took organizations and governments around the world attaches special attention, but we can say that quality has become the first function for many organizations, and has become a management philosophy

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 15 2021
Journal Name
المجلة العربية للبحوث الادبية والانسانية
Service Leadership and Customer Satisfaction Under COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis : An Empirical Research for Leaders of Public Organizations in Iraq
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The current research aims to identify the degree to which a sample of managers in public organizations appreciated the level of application of the service leadership style from their point of view, and its relationship to the customer satisfaction index in light of the (Covid-19) pandemic, to achieve this, the researcher followed the experimental approach by applying a questionnaire that included two axes, The first: to measure the level of service leadership according to the scale (D. Van Dierendonck and I. Nuijten, 2011), which includes (8) dimensions (empowerment, stand back, accountability, courage, forgiveness, Authenticity, humility, stewardship). The second axis: to measure the level of customer satisfaction according to (Askim, 2004

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Travel Time Prediction Models and Reliability Indices for Palestine Urban Road in Baghdad City
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Abstract

     Travel Time estimation and reliability measurement is an important issues for improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks. The aim of this research is the estimation of total travel time and distribution analysis for three selected links in Palestine Arterial Street in Baghdad city. Buffer time index results in worse reliability conditions. Link (2) from Bab Al Mutham intersection to Al-Sakara intersection produced a buffer index of about 36%  and 26 % for Link (1) Al-Mawall intersection to Bab Al- Mutham intersection and finally for link (3) which presented a 24% buffer index. These illustrated that the reliability get worst for link

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 12th International Conference On Developments In Esystems Engineering (dese)
Structural Rehabilitation on Continuous Post-Tensioned Prestressed Concrete Box-Girder Bridge Exposed to Explosion: A Case Study
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risks of Audit under Environment of Information Technology
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Standards of audit have been defined issued them by professional organizations the audit risk is: Failure of the auditor inadvertently to amend his opinion on the financial statements in suitable method, although these statements are Interpolated Essentially. As result the deep impacts caused by electronic operating systems in the accounting data in the audit process which audit risk has gained attention of many professional sides, especially the audit process and quality is relating with level of discovery the auditor for the mistakes of origin (misrepresentations) all their types and give the necessary confidence for the auditor to express his technical opinion in fidelity and certified financial statements which prepared electronicall

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
Cognitive Motivation among Students of the Faculty of Education and its Relationship to the Trend to Teaching Profession
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The present research aims to identify thecorrelation between cognitive motivation andthe trend towards the teaching profession among students of the Department of Chemistry in theFaculty of Education for Pure Sciences - Ibn al-Haytham, as well as to identify the differences in the relationship according to the variable type (male, female). The measures of cognitive motivation and the trend towards the teaching profession were applied, using pearson's correlation coefficient,t-testfor one sample, andthe t-test of two separate samples.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Adequacy and Authoritative Evidences in the Audit Risks: An Exploratory Research for A Sample Views of Auditors in Iraq
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The Audit evedances represent the reconciliation tools between the Financial data shown on financial statements, and the level of satisfaction level of the Auditor about these statements. According that, the Auditor try to achieve the highest quantity of These evidances, and the most satisfactive of it…, but that will be so hard sometimes, when the internal controlling system is not good, and when the Auditor had some satisfied evidences, but not sharp… So, this research comes to inspect the relation between the quantity, and the level of satisfaction, and argument to prove that evidences gives. This research assumes that getting enough evidences leads to reduce faults, improves the auditing operation, and avoids risks. The research

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