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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effects of Using Educational Moodle Platform to Develop Instructors’ Skills in Designing Electronic Tests at Dhofar University
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With the premise that effective use of online instructional practices is of vital importance in classrooms, the current study aimed to examine the effects of using Moodle applications to develop instructors’ skills in designing electronic tests at Dhofar University. The sample of this study consisted of (25) instructors participated in the experimental group. The researchers implemented a quasi-experimental design with one group pre- and post-test; in addition, an observation card was implemented to measure the target skills related to test design. The research instruments were subjected to validity and reliability measures to ensure valid and reliable data and results. The study results showed that those instructors who participated i

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
An Extensive Literature Review on Risk Assessment Models (Techniques and Methodology) for Construction Industry
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This study looks into the many methods that are used in the risk assessment procedure that is used in the construction industry nowadays. As a result of the slow adoption of novel assessment methods, professionals frequently resort to strategies that have previously been validated as being successful. When it comes to risk assessment, having a precise analytical tool that uses the cost of risk as a measurement and draws on the knowledge of professionals could potentially assist bridge the gap between theory and practice. This step will examine relevant literature, sort articles according to their published year, and identify domains and qualities. Consequently, the most significant findings have been presented in a manne

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Universities Governance Accourding to Incremental Approach for Strategic Decision
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The research's purpose is to highlight the role that the Approach of the strategic decision play in universities' governorships, assuming that the universities' governorship are definite result that can be reached by modern universities through their active strategic decisions that they take based on the correct way of thinking and the appropriate entrance that achieve the strategic goal of these decisions. The current research depended on two curriculums necessitated by the research requirement which are the analytical description curriculum and compare curriculum, the field research was done in the (Baghdad and Al-Mustansiriya) universities, the samples that were selected were the president, assistants and members of the board'

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposal of Using Principle of Maximizing Entropy of Generalized Gamma Distribution to Estimate the Survival probabilities of the
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Abstract

In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of  Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality and fundamentals of the poultry industry and its implications on the prices of eggs and chickens in Iraq for the period from 2000 to 2009 (analytical study)
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Despite all the possibilities held by Iraq for the production of poultry , but there is low and clear in the level of production and a rise in costs and a decline in per capita consumption is due to a number of reasons, including poor investment , stop government subsides , dumping policies , market Bolmottagat imported , the contribution of the merchant squandering of national capacity , weak base material for the growth of this sector , the security situation and the crisis of energy and others .

Despite all this research has shown that there are great investment opportunities in this very sector of the market size and absorptive capacity of his and the growth of per capita income  and level of cul

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use some probability amputated models to study the characteristics of health payments in the Iraqi Insurance Company
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Abstract

Due to the lack of previous statistical study of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study was selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.

In order to find the convenient model representing the health insurance payments, we initially detected two probability models by using (Easy Fit) software:

First, a single Lognormal for the whole sample and the other is a Compound Weibull  for the two Sub samples (small payments and large payments), and we focused on the compoun

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
EXTENSION ADMINISTRATION PERFORMANCE UNDER QUALITY STANDARDS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORKING STAFF IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND VEGETABLES FARMERS OF CENTRAL GOVERNORATES IN IRAQ
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This research aims to identify the level of extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of the working staff in agricultural extension at the level of the general extension body and agricultural directorates and agricultural division.this was to identify the extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of vegetables growers , random sample was selected from the central region governorates Baghdad , Diyala , Babel , karbala and Al-Najaf , a random sample from the workers in the general body numbered 56 employee , sample of staff working in agricultural extension was selected at the level of agricultural directorates in proportion

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
PART 3 New Experiments Three Factors On The Box plot, Box notch & Outlier Values
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New two experiments of the three factors, in this study were constructed to investigate the effects, of the fixed variations to the box plot on subjects' judgments of the box lengths. These two experiments were constructed as an extension to the group B experiments, the ratio experiments the experiments with two variables carried out previously by Hussin, M.M. (1989, 2006, 2007). The first experiment box notch experiment, and the second experiment outlier values experiment. Subjects were asked to judge what percentage the shorter represented of the longer length in pairs of box lengths and give an estimate of percentage, one being a standard plot and the other being of a different box lengths and

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of some short-term debt instruments on the money supply and its effect on the production of wheat crop in Iraq during the period (1990_2018).
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The research aims to show the effect of some short-term debt instruments (central treasury transfers, cash credit granted to the government by commercial banks) on the production of the wheat crop in Iraq, through its effect on money supply during the period (1990-2018), As the study includes two models according to the statistical program (Eviews9), the first model included measuring the effect of short-term debt instruments on money supply, and the second measuring the extent of the money supply's impact on Wheat crop production, as the results of the standard analysis showed that the short-term debt instruments used in the model were Significant effect on wheat crop production indirectly through its effect on money supply, As

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Land Uses temporary agricultural in the province of Maysan and its relationship to soil salinity and its chemical
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The research aims to learn spatial disparities tracts of agricultural crops in the
province of Maysan and their relationship (the salinity of the soil and the degree of chemical
interaction (PH)) The research is divided into an introduction and three Investigation eat first
section spatial disparities agricultural crops (cereals, vegetables, legumes and forage). The
comparison between the years of production in the province where the province has seen
varied spatial by hand and taking second section degrees of soil salinity and its impact on
agriculture, as well as the chemical reaction (PH) and its impact on agriculture The third
section has been used three technical techniques first linkage and the second simple an

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