The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
المستخلـص
تم في هذا البحث دراسة الطرائق اللامعلمية الرتيبة لتقدير دالة الأنحدار اللامعلمي، ومعالجة القيم الشاذة الموجودة في دالة الأنحدار اللامعلمي لجعل الدالة رتيبة (متزايدة أو متناقصة).
لذا سنقوم أولاً بتقدير دالة الأنحدار اللامعلمي بإستخدام ممهد Kernel ومن ثم تطبيق الطرائق الرتيبة لجعل الدالة متزايدة إذ سنتناول ثلاث طرائق للتقدير:-
1- طريقة ste
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the role of university education management in achieving sustainable environmental development.
Students in the twenty-first century need to find innovative ways to satisfy and respond to these learning requirements since they live in a visible world that is continuously surrounded by visual, technological stimuli. This is especially true of higher education. In order promote advancements in sustainable awareness, the project aims to include visual understanding in education (VUE) in higher education communication skills. An interview has been employed as a tool to accomplish the study's goal. The idea of Visual Understanding in Education (VUE) is one of the many novel or modern ways that has produced remarkable outcomes in a wide range of specialized sectors. Teachers may spread lessons of responsibility and consciousness by being aw
... Show MoreEnergy use is second to staffing in building operating costs. Sustainable technology in the energy sector is based on utilizing renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, glazing systems, insulation. Other areas of focus include heating, ventilation and air conditioning; novel materials and construction methods; improved sensors and monitoring systems; and advanced simulation tools that can help building designers make more energy efficient choices. The objective of this research is studying the effect of insulations on energy consumption of buildings in Iraq and identifying the amount of energy savings from application th
... Show MoreThe problems of urban historic centers are considered some of the subjects which are widely dealt with in urban studies since the middle of the 20th century. literature of urban development have raised it , beside the fact that large number of urban development projects of the historical centers in many cities of the world ,and emerged from the application of these new problems projects added their original urban problems , because these projects have dealt with the physical structures with the neglect of the social and economic sides, which are the base in sustainable development nResearch problem was elaborated as : The unclearly of knowledge of the potentials of the sustainable development in solving the urban problems of historic cen
... Show MoreThis research concerns the fact of the school garden and how can we tackle this issue. The research starts with a question forwarded to those who are interested in the ministry of education matters; the question is that how is the extent of interest in the school garden project? And how it is activated in the Iraqi Educational Institution program? In addition, the analysis reveals the importance of the school garden since we, as teachers and students, suffer from seeing the view of the trashes, the wastes of school furniture, the stinking water and the weeds and how it is accumulated in the back yard of the school. To add fuel to the fire, the increase in number of the students; year after year. This increase leads to adding more classes
... Show MoreAA wahid, journal mustansiriyah of sports science, 2023
In this paper, previous studies about Fuzzy regression had been presented. The fuzzy regression is a generalization of the traditional regression model that formulates a fuzzy environment's relationship to independent and dependent variables. All this can be introduced by non-parametric model, as well as a semi-parametric model. Moreover, results obtained from the previous studies and their conclusions were put forward in this context. So, we suggest a novel method of estimation via new weights instead of the old weights and introduce
Paper Type: Review article.
another suggestion based on artificial neural networks.