The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Energy use is second to staffing in building operating costs. Sustainable technology in the energy sector is based on utilizing renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, glazing systems, insulation. Other areas of focus include heating, ventilation and air conditioning; novel materials and construction methods; improved sensors and monitoring systems; and advanced simulation tools that can help building designers make more energy efficient choices. The objective of this research is studying the effect of insulations on energy consumption of buildings in Iraq and identifying the amount of energy savings from application th
... Show MoreThis research proposes the application of the dragonfly and fruit fly algorithms to enhance estimates generated by the Fama-MacBeth model and compares their performance in this context for the first time. To specifically improve the dragonfly algorithm's effectiveness, three parameter tuning approaches are investigated: manual parameter tuning (MPT), adaptive tuning by methodology (ATY), and a novel technique called adaptive tuning by performance (APT). Additionally, the study evaluates the estimation performance using kernel weighted regression (KWR) and explores how the dragonfly and fruit fly algorithms can be employed to enhance KWR. All methods are tested using data from the Iraq Stock Exchange, based on the Fama-French three-f
... Show MoreThis paper shews how to estimate the parameter of generalized exponential Rayleigh (GER) distribution by three estimation methods. The first one is maximum likelihood estimator method the second one is moment employing estimation method (MEM), the third one is rank set sampling estimator method (RSSEM)The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. Finally using the mean squares error criterion to compare between these estimation methods to find which of these methods are best to the others
Abstract Planetary nebulae (PN) represents the short phase in the life of stars with masses (0.89-7) M☉. Several physical processes taking place during the red giant phase of low and intermediates-mass stars. These processes include :1) The regular (early ) wind and the envelope ejection, 2) The thermal pulses during Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB ) phase. In this paper it is briefly discussed how such processes affect the mass range of Planetary Nebulae(PN) nuclei(core) and their evolution, and the PN life time, and fading time for the masses which adopted. The Synthetic model is adopted. The envelope mass of star (MeN ) and transition time (ttr) calculated respectively for the parameter (MeR =1.5,2, 3×10-3 M☉). Another time scale is o
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the mix of production optimization in the case of several conflicting objectives to be achieved at the same time, therefore, discussions dealt with the concept of programming goals and entrances to be resolved and dealt with the general formula for the programming model the goals and finally determine the mix of production optimization using a programming model targets to the default case.
ABSTRACT: Ultimate bearing capacity of soft ground reinforced with stone column was recently predicted using various artificial intelligence technologies such as artificial neural network because of all the advantages that they can offer in minimizing time, effort and cost. As well as, most of applied theories or predicted formulas deduced analytically from previous studies were feasible only for a particular testing environment and do not match other field or laboratory datasets. However, the performance of such techniques depends largely on input parameters that really affect the target output and missing of any parameter can lead to inaccurate results and give a false indicator. In the current study, data were collected from previous rel
... Show MoreThis study included the extraction properties of spatial and morphological basins studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model linked to (GIS) to find the amount of sediment and rates of flow that flows into the Haditha reservoir . The aim of this study is determine the amount of sediment coming from the valleys and flowing into the Haditha Dam reservoir for 25 years ago for the period (1985-2010) and its impact on design lifetime of the Haditha Dam reservoir and to determine the best ways to reduce the sediment transport. The result indicated that total amount of sediment coming from all valleys about (2.56 * 106 ton). The maximum annual total sediment load was about (488.22 * 103 ton) in year 1988
... Show MoreThis paper introduces a non-conventional approach with multi-dimensional random sampling to solve a cocaine abuse model with statistical probability. The mean Latin hypercube finite difference (MLHFD) method is proposed for the first time via hybrid integration of the classical numerical finite difference (FD) formula with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique to create a random distribution for the model parameters which are dependent on time [Formula: see text]. The LHS technique gives advantage to MLHFD method to produce fast variation of the parameters’ values via number of multidimensional simulations (100, 1000 and 5000). The generated Latin hypercube sample which is random or non-deterministic in nature is further integ
... Show MoreThe topic of urban transformations has attracted the attention of researchers as it is one of the basic issues through which cities can be transformed towards sustainability. A specific level of transformation levels according to a philosophical concept known as a crossing. This article has relied on a specific methodology that aims to find a new approach for urban transformation based on the crossing concept. This concept derives from philosophical entrances based on the concepts of (being, process, becoming, and integration). Four levels have been for the crossing are (normal, ascending, leap, and descending). Each of these levels includes specific characteristics that distinguish it. The results showed that there is no descending
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