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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index
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Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Geotechnical Engineering And Sustainable Construction
Towards Sustainable Local Tourism to Conserve the Natural Environment: Foundations of Sustainable Ecolodge Design
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Publication Date
Thu May 07 2026
Journal Name
Frontiers In Sustainability
Using ethical artificial intelligence (EAI) to achieve sustainable development, Iraq as a case study
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Introduction

Iraq faces persistent challenges in achieving sustainable development due to decades of conflict, political instability, and infrastructural degradation. These challenges are particularly evident in critical sectors such as energy, water, healthcare, education, and governance, which significantly influence human well-being, social equity, and quality of life. This study proposes an AI-driven, ethically guided, and human-centric sustainability framework to support resilient urban transformation in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model
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The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A model of a proposed audit program to audit the strategies of municipal institutions and its impact on achieving sustainable development: An applied research in the municipal institutions of Karbala Governorate
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Abstract

                  The study aimed to prepare a practical guide for procedures for auditing the strategies of municipal institutions in achieving sustainable development by adopting the idea of ​​the audit matrix through which a classified report is prepared according to the dimensions of sustainable development, by preparing a specialized audit program for the purpose of auditing strategies for achieving sustainable development and emptying the results of the application of each of the paragraphs The program in the audit matrix that was prepared for the purpose of determining the impact of each observation and linkin

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 14 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Nonlinear MIMO-PID Neural Controller Design for Vehicle Lateral Dynamics model based on Modified Elman Neural Network
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This paper presents a new design of a nonlinear multi-input multi-output PID neural controller of the active brake steering force and the active front steering angle for a 2-DOF vehicle model based on modified Elman recurrent neural. The goal of this work is to achieve the stability and to improve the vehicle dynamic’s performance through achieving the desired yaw rate and reducing the lateral velocity of the vehicle in a minimum time period for preventing the vehicle from slipping out the road curvature by using two active control actions: the front steering angle and the brake steering force. Bacterial forging optimization algorithm is used to adjust the parameters weights of the proposed controller. Simulation resul

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 27 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Building Geological Model for Tertiary Reservoir of Exploration Ismail Oil Field, North Iraq
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Geologic modeling is the art of constructing a structural and stratigraphic model of a reservoir from analyses and interpretations of seismic data, log data, core data, etc. ‎[1].

   A static reservoir model typically involves four main stages, these stages are Structural modeling, Stratigraphic modeling, Lithological modeling and Petrophysical modeling ‎[2].

   Ismail field is exploration structure, located in the north Iraq, about 55 km north-west of Kirkuk city, to the north-west of the Bai Hassan field, the distance between the Bai Hassan field and Ismael field is about one kilometer ‎[3].

   Tertiary period reservoir sequences (Main Limestone), which comprise many economica

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Effectiveness of a Simulation Model of Thermal Insulation in Building Materials Using Cellulose Extracted from Agricultural Waste in Baghdad
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This study found that one of the constructive, necessary, beneficial, most effective, and cost-effective ways to meet the great challenge of rising energy prices is to develop and improve energy quality and efficiency. The process of improving the quality of energy and its means has been carried out in many buildings and around the world. It was found that the thermal insulation process in buildings and educational facilities has become the primary tool for improving energy efficiency, enabling us to improve and develop the internal thermal environment quality processes recommended for users (student - teacher). An excellent and essential empirical study has been conducted to calculate the fundamental values ​​of the

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Inorganic Chemistry Communications
Rapid sonochemical synthesis of Fe3O4@AC from waste rubber tires to use for azo dye removal
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Health Belief Model and its Relation to Age and Body Mass Index Considering Colorectal Examinations among Graduate Students
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Abstract
Objectives: The study aims to: (1) Find out the relationship among participants’ age, body mass index (BMI), and Health Belief Model (HBM) related to colorectal examinations among graduate students. (2) Investigate the differences in Health Belief Model constructs between the groups of age, gender, marital status, and education level among graduate students.
Methodology: A descriptive correlational study design which conducted in the College of Fine Arts – University of Baghdad. A convenience sample of 80 graduate students were included in this study. The data were collected by using a self-reported questionnaire which consisted of two parts (I) socio-demographic characteristics (II) Colorectal Cancer Screening Beliefs

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