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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Classroom Teachers’ Perceptions of Response to Intervention Implementation: a Qualitative Interview Study
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The purpose of this interview study was to explore teachers’ perceptions of Response to Intervention (RtI) implementation in their school. Particularly, the study explored teachers’ knowledge of RtI, teachers’ perceptions of RtI their intervention/instruction in school, and teachers’ suggestions of RtI implementation in their school. The study design was a qualitative interview in nature and data were collected from face-to-face interviews with four teachers in one school. The findings revealed that RtI means to identify students’ problems; the positive teachers’ perceptions of their implementation included: (a) students who demonstrate progress through RtI are those who receive private education services, (b) progress monito

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Conference Of Computational Methods In Sciences And Engineering Iccmse 2021
Penetration of charged particles in ZnO using energy loss function model
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In this paper, we propose an approach to estimate the induced potential, which is generated by swift heavy ions traversing a ZnO thin film, via an energy loss function (ELF). This induced potential is related to the projectile charge density, ρq(k) and is described by the extended Drude dielectric function. At zero momentum transfer, the resulting ELF exhibits good agreement with the previously reported results. The ELF, obtained by the extended Drude model, displays a realistic behavior over the Bethe ridge. It is observed that the induced potential relies on the heavy ion velocity and charge state q. Further, the numerical results show that the induced potential for neutral H, as projectile, dominates when the heavy ion velocity is less

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the area unit Function of Productivity for the Potato Crop in Anbar province( for the autumn season 2008 / 2009 )
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The aim of this research is to estimate the area unit function of productivity for the potato crop in Anbar province for the autumn season (2008 / 2009) Anbar province has been chosen as an applied model for the study due to its well known in cultivating potato crop , and the data were collected through a random sample about (10%) from the study society with a (150) farmers,  The results indicated that the double logarithmic formula was the best representative of the relationship between crop productivity and independent variables (quantity of potato tubers , quantity of herbicides stuffs, quantity of fertilizer , hours of mechanical labour

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Combinatorial Approach to Obtain the Yield Probability Distribution along a Linearly-Loaded Cantilever Beam
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The substantial key to initiate an explicit statistical formula for a physically specified continua is to consider a derivative expression, in order to identify the definitive configuration of the continua itself. Moreover, this statistical formula is to reflect the whole distribution of the formula of which the considered continua is the most likely to be dependent. However, a somewhat mathematically and physically tedious path to arrive at the required statistical formula is needed. The procedure in the present research is to establish, modify, and implement an optimized amalgamation between Airy stress function for elastically-deformed media and the multi-canonical joint probability density functions for multivariate distribution complet

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Institutional Performance Assessment using a model of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) A case study at an organization
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The study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.

The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Crude Oil Price in its Global Market
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This paper addresses the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices, in real market and financial sector. In order to prepare the analytical background for further investigation, it highlights the patterns of correlations of the real oil price and the most related prices of assets, exchange rate and government bond yield. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil price, quantities and the  global macroeconomic environment. Topics discussed include the theory of differential rent and scarcity effect ,the role of  future market and speculation, strategies of energy of the major economies to investigate the prospects of oil market and the potential demand for  OPEC's oil.  The paper explores the

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Laplace Distribution And Probabilistic (bi) In Linear Programming Model
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The theory of probabilistic programming  may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, pro­duction and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Dynamics of Predator-prey Model under Fluctuation Rescue Effect
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This paper presents a novel idea as it investigates the rescue effect of the prey with fluctuation effect for the first time to propose a modified predator-prey model that forms a non-autonomous model. However, the approximation method is utilized to convert the non-autonomous model to an autonomous one by simplifying the mathematical analysis and following the dynamical behaviors. Some theoretical properties of the proposed autonomous model like the boundedness, stability, and Kolmogorov conditions are studied. This paper's analytical results demonstrate that the dynamic behaviors are globally stable and that the rescue effect improves the likelihood of coexistence compared to when there is no rescue impact. Furthermore, numerical simul

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Word Cloud Model based on Hate Speech in an Online Social Media Environment
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Social media is known as detectors platform that are used to measure the activities of the users in the real world. However, the huge and unfiltered feed of messages posted on social media trigger social warnings, particularly when these messages contain hate speech towards specific individual or community. The negative effect of these messages on individuals or the society at large is of great concern to governments and non-governmental organizations. Word clouds provide a simple and efficient means of visually transferring the most common words from text documents. This research aims to develop a word cloud model based on hateful words on online social media environment such as Google News. Several steps are involved including data acq

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