The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Currently and under the COVID-19 which is considered as a kind of disaster or even any other natural or manmade disasters, this study was confirmed to be important especially when the society is proceeding to recover and reduce the risks of as possible as injuries. These disasters are leading somehow to paralyze the activities of society as what happened in the period of COVID-19, therefore, more efforts were to be focused for the management of disasters in different ways to reduce their risks such as working from distance or planning solutions digitally and send them to the source of control and hence how most countries overcame this stage of disaster (COVID-19) and collapse. Artificial intelligence should be used when there is no practica
... Show MoreThis research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing it with anothe
... Show MoreThe printing designer's creative thinking is a deliberate mental process based on specific skills that stimulate the motivation of the student to learn and call for new information for the investigation and research to discover the problems and attitudes and through reformulating the experience in new patterns depending on the active imagination and the flexible scientific thinking through providing the largest number possible of various unfamiliar printing design models, and testing their suitability and then readjusting the results with the availability of suitable educational, learning and academic atmosphere.
The designer's creative thinking depends on main skills. Fluency skill is to put t
... Show More Problem solving methods and mechanisms contribute to facilitating human life by providing tools to solve simple and complex daily problems. These mechanisms have been essential tools for professional designers and design students in solving design problems.
This research dealt with one of those mechanisms, which is the (the substance-field model model), as it has been mentioning that this mechanism is characterized by the difficulty of its application, which formed the main research problem. In home gardens (the sub-problem of research), an analysis of this problem was applied and then a solution was found to address it. The researcher used the 3dsmax program to implement the proposed design.
The most important research res
This research deals with a shrinking method concernes with the principal components similar to that one which used in the multiple regression “Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection: LASS”. The goal here is to make an uncorrelated linear combinations from only a subset of explanatory variables that may have a multicollinearity problem instead taking the whole number say, (K) of them. This shrinkage will force some coefficients to equal zero, after making some restriction on them by some "tuning parameter" say, (t) which balances the bias and variance amount from side, and doesn't exceed the acceptable percent explained variance of these components. This had been shown by MSE criterion in the regression case and the percent explained v
... Show MoreAbstract:
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اعداد : أسرار عبد الزهراء علي - علاء الدين - ب. جواد حسن عودة عبد الله - جامعة بغداد جامعة بغداد كلية البصرة للعلوم والتكنولوجيا - كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد. كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد المركز الديمقراطي العربي – مجلة القانون الدستوري والعلوم الإدارية : العدد التاسع شباط – فبراير 2021 المجلد 3 ،
Higher education is one of the foundational pillars that contributes to the development of societies and the achievement of social and economic progress. With the accelerating advancements in technological, environmental, and social fields, universities and educational institutions worldwide are facing significant challenges requiring them to adapt to these changes and develop new educational strategies. In this context, directing higher education towards achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) has become imperative, as these goals are now an integral part of modern societies' vision, particularly in light of global challenges such as climate change, population growth, and unemployment. By the year 2050, educational institutions
... Show MoreThis study aimed to clarify the importance of ecological taxation in achieving sustainable development, by analyzing a set of economic measures such as taxes, taxes levied by the legislation in the field of ecology, to fight against pollution. And we tried to evaluate this initiative in Algeria. The results of the study showed that economic measures of ecological taxation contribute to achieving sustainable development, and Although Algeria has adopted a series of ecological tax mechanisms, it is far from keeping pace with developments in this area.