The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this paper, a Cholera epidemic model is proposed and studied analytically as well as numerically. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by contact with Vibrio cholerae and infected person according to dose-response function. However, the saturated treatment function is used to describe the recovery process. Moreover, the vaccine against the disease is assumed to be utterly ineffective. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All possible equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are determined. The local stability and persistence conditions are established. Lyapunov method and the second additive compound matrix are used to study the global stability of the system.
... Show MoreNaber and toning in the modern Arab poetry Mahmoud Darwish, a model
When we talk about the foresight in films, it is necessary to talk about dreams because foresight represents one of its distinct types. The Precognitive vision has become a possible material in dealing with as subjects in the film industry that adopt these ideas with their philosophical and scientific orientations, because they represent the imagination that predictors are specialized with. It can be invested through the introduction of a vision of another kind to achieve its goals and ambitions in the film industry and in particular the huge institutions of production as in Hollywood. The cinema works in the light of those concepts of production which found the prognostic dream (the foresight) as a distinctive genre in its films,
Th
Measurement of construction performance is essential to a clear image of the present situation. This monitoring by the management team is necessary to identify locations where performance is exceptionally excellent or poor and to identify the primary reasons so that the lessons gained may be exported to the firm and its progress strengthened. This research attempts to construct an integrated mathematical model utilizing one of the recent methodologies for dealing with the fuzzy representation of experts’ knowledge and judgment considering hesitancy called spherical fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (SFAHP) method to assess the contractor’s performance per the project performance pa
Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems are used as an efficient and effective method of exchanging patients’ health information with doctors and other key stakeholders in the health sector to obtain improved patient treatment decisions and diagnoses. As a result, questions regarding the security of sensitive user data are highlighted. To encourage people to move their sensitive health records to cloud networks, a secure authentication and access control mechanism that protects users’ data should be established. Furthermore, authentication and access control schemes are essential in the protection of health data, as numerous responsibilities exist to ensure security and privacy in a network. So, the main goal of our s
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is becoming a great known established collaboration process in Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry. In various cases in many countries, potential benefits and competitive advantages have been reported. However, despite the potentials and benefits of BIM technologies, it is not applied in the construction sector in Iraq just like many other countries of the world. The purpose of this research is to understand the uses and benefits of BIM for construction projects in Iraq. This purpose has been done by establishing a fr |
Liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) consist of hydrocarbons obtained by refining crude oil, either from propane or butane or a mixture of the two. There are often other components such as propylene, butylene or other hydrocarbons, but they are not the main component. The study aims to review previous studies dealing with designing an LPG system to deliver gas to residential campuses and buildings. LPG is extracted from natural gas NG by several processes, passing through fractionation towers and then pressuring into CNG storage tanks. Gas contains several problems, including gas leakage through the pipes and leads to fires or explosions in LPG storage and distribution tanks, so safety conditions were taken in the design and implementation. T
... Show MoreThis study is an approach to assign the land area of Kirkuk city [ a city located in the northern of Iraq, 236 kilometers north of Baghdad and 83 kilometers south of Erbil [ Climatic atlas of Iraq, 1941-1970 ] into different multi zones by using Satellite image and Arc Map10.3, zones of different traffic noise pollutions. Land zonings process like what achieved in this paper will help and of it’s of a high interest point for the future of Kirkuk city especially urban
... Show MoreIt is commonly known that Euler-Bernoulli’s thin beam theorem is not applicable whenever a nonlinear distribution of strain/stress occurs, such as in deep beams, or the stress distribution is discontinuous. In order to design the members experiencing such distorted stress regions, the Strut-and-Tie Model (STM) could be utilized. In this paper, experimental investigation of STM technique for three identical small-scale deep beams was conducted. The beams were simply supported and loaded statically with a concentrated load at the mid span of the beams. These deep beams had two symmetrical openings near the application point of loading. Both the deep beam, where the stress distribution cannot be assumed linear, and the ex
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