The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Research summary
Backbiting pronouns have gained great importance in contemporary textual linguistic studies, as they play a coordinating function in the text and link its parts.
Interpreters did not overlook the role of backbiting pronouns in achieving the function of consistency and coherence in the Qur’anic text, as they referred to this, including Ibn Ashour, who had many analytical practices related to referral issues and their complexities. The Qur'anic reference to the pronouns of backbiting, so the researcher traced these phenomena and their evidence in the Holy Qur'an, aiming to clarify their role in enriching the significance and in the coherence and harmony
... Show MoreThe novel has recently received great attention from readers and before them writers, due to the role it is playing, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is art or creativity, there must be a criticism of its own, and this criticism is certainly no less important than its owner, so we find There are critics who have their distinguished literary position in following up the narrative development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements, including Professor Fadel Thamer, and whoever wants to approach an element of the novel as an explorer, he must stand on the visions of this critic about it, and this is what made us take the element (personality) Tracking the most important opinions of the critic
... Show MoreIt is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul
... Show MorePraise be to God, prayer, and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and his God and his companions. The field of the judiciary to prove or invalidate some cases in the field of proof of descent and attachment to the plaintiff or exile, and other legal and judicial issues, especially in this era where the spread of previously unknown evidence, such as DNA, which was discovered in 1953, and the genetic fingerprint discovered 1984, blood analysis and a Saliva, sweat, poetry, etc. in the field of forensic evidence, in forensic medicine or medical expertise, it can be used to identify the killer, or verify his identity, using all the evidence in the scene, such as a point of blood or sweat, and the like So, as well as to prove the lineage is u
... Show MoreNegotiations are distinguished in that they are an easy and simple means between the conflicting parties, and it is an effective means at the same time as the conflicting parties seek understanding on the most effective way to solve their dispute, but negotiations are not always appropriate to resolve international disputes, especially when there is a disparity in power between the negotiating countries, or when it is missing Goodwill, or even when one of the parties is absent or less flexible, and the internal circumstances of one of the conflicting countries may play a negative or positive role in the success of the negotiations, away from the influence of the role of external variables in that, a
... Show MoreThe European Unit has never been affected by a serious phenomena as the phenomena of the advancing of the far right parties. Though these parties vary in their impact in their original countries, they agree on one important issue which is the deconstruction of the European unit and limiting its supernational powers. These increasing popular parties aim at more national independence in decision making away from the decisions taken by Brussels. Moreover, they criticize the financial and administrative corruption accompanied many of the rescuing procedures directed for example towards countries like Greece and Spain during the international economic crisis. This failure nourishes many of the negative feelings against the European unit which
... Show MoreThis study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator’s refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points’ local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the per
... Show MoreNovel has recently received the attention of readers and writers greatly, because of the role they play, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is an art or creativity, there must be a respective criticism, and this criticism is certainly not less important than the author. So there are critics who have a prestigious literary position in the follow-up story development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements. One of these critics is professor Fadhel Thamer, and who wants to approach one of the elements of the novel exploring, must stop on the visions of this critic about it , and that’s why we take the (character) element following the most important opinions of this critic about
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The article critically analyzes traditional translation models. The most influential models of translation in the second half of the 20th century have been mentioned, among which the theory of formal and dynamic equivalence, the theory of regular correspondences, informative, situational-denotative, functional-pragmatic theory of communication levels have been considered. The selected models have been analyzed from the point of view of the universality of their use for different types and types of translation, as well as the ability to comprehend the deep links established between the original and the translation.
Аннотация
In our research, we seek to shed a light on one of the most important and sensitive issues, namely, the Sufi influence in the Iraqi novel through the lame maqam of the novelist Jumaa Al-Lami, the Sufi discourse contains many semantic paradoxes between the text's apparent pronunciation and its interpretation of the format and the context that produced these patterns, and incited them, which concludes different results from the prevailing provisions and fixed ideas from the narrative text.The Arabic and Iraqi novel in particular became inspired by the power of Sufi discourse by talking about several Sufi figures by referring to it openly, or implicitly inspired by unauthorized concealment, in employing some of the ideas, or summoning
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