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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
مجلة الآداب والعلوم الإنسانیة
الأداء الاعلامي بين الرضا الوظيفي و المهنية للمرأة الاعلامية في القنوات الفضائية العراقية
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ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺫﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﰲ ﲑﺒﻛ ﺭﻮﻄﺗ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺎﺼﺗﻻﺍ ﺮﺼﻋ ﻩﺪﻬﺷ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﰲ ﺔﻴﻧﻮﻳﺰﻔﻠﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺍ ﺢﺴﻓ ﰲ ﻢﻬﺳﺃ ﺕﺎﻄﶈﺍ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﺔﻴﻧﻮﻳﺰﻔﻠﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﻘﻟﺍ ﺚﺒﻟ ﻊﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻝﺎ ( ﺔﻴﺿﺭﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﺑﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ( ﱵﻟﺍ ﺔﺻﺎﳋﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ ﰲ ﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺪﻋﺎﺳ ﺎﳑﻭ ، ﺕﺎﻴﺋﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺩﺎﺳ ﻥﺃ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﺣ ﲑﻏ ﺕﺎﻴﻌﲨ ﻭ

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The affective factors on the urban growth for the port cities (analytical study of the growth of the Um Qasr city))
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In this paper, the relationship between urban growth, land use, site availability, and impacts on the general appearance of the city generated by functional characteristics of port cities were analyzed. Various data were used to identify patterns of land use change and city growth and expansion. The research aims to analyze the impact of the port on the growth of the city, study the urban growth of the city of Umm Qasr and predicting the growth trends, and to identify the most influential factors in this growth. The study dealt with the concepts of urban growth and the factors that characterize the growth of port cities and the current situation of the city. The practical part included the mechanisms used by the researcher to analyze the

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
« L'agressivité de la parole et de l'acte » dans Haute Surveillance et Les Bonnes de Jean Genet
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Sommaire

                      La question de la violence et de l'agressivité  porte une importance remarquable dans l’esprit de Jean Genet qui estime le crime   en le considérant comme beau. Il lui donne une valeur suprême. Il le glorifie avec ses personnages criminels.   Le langage théâtral genétien est violent qui conduit à la fin à l’acte agressif, le crime et la mort. Ce théâtre qui aborde la condition humaine retrace sur la scène le chemin tragique de l’homme moderne.               

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مدخل الجودة ومؤشرات اوسع لتقويم جودة العملية التعليمية دراسة تطبيقية في جامعة بغداد
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المستخلص

يهدف هذا البحث إلى تصميم ومكننة نظام متطور لتقويم جودة العملية التعليمية للجامعات العراقية، باعتماد مدخل الجودة، ومكننة نظام معلومات قادر على توفير البيانات بالخصائص المطلوبة التي يمكن الاستناد إليه في اجراء عملية التقويم على وفق النظام المقترح.

اعتمد البحث على أسلوبيّ دراسة الحالة والدراسة التطبيقية، للوصول إلى النتائج ا

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 07 2024
Journal Name
مجلة الدراسات المستدامة
توظيف القوة الناعمة في تنفيذ السياسة الخارجية الفرنسية اتجاه المنطقة العربية بعد 2017م
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توظيف القوة الناعمة في تنفيذ السياسة الخارجية الفرنسية اتجاه المنطقة العربية بعد 2017م

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة الدراسات المستدامة
المسؤولية المدنية الناشئة عن الاخلال بالالتزام بضمان سلامة الاشخاص في عقد التحاليل الطبية
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 22 2022
Journal Name
مجلة الزرقاء للبحوث والدراسات
صياغة استراتيجية الامن القومي للدولة في ضوء ادراك التهديدات المتغيرة : الاستراتيجية الروسية انموذجا
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Rhetoric Effect of Ibn Al Faridh’s Poetry Counterparts: اسماء خليل ابراهيم, فرج منسي محمد
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 The Sufi poetry of Ibn Al-Faridh represents a true image of the spiritual  experience, in which he presented the bright aspects of  his experience, and his suffering in it, by formulating it in a poetic form, because the Sufi poetry is the result of an experience in which the Sufi seeks to achieve his goal of reaching the truth, and this is why Ibn Al-Faridh made his poetry a tool for expression on his own experience, the poet reflected his Sufi life in which he moved rhymes and weights.

   The poet Ibn Al-Faridh stands as a witness to his making of  Sufi poetry in the service of the purpose of who said, it is the embodiment of the Sufi journey in the stages, and the fluctuation in the places and si

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2005
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
الاحاسيس القومية والوطنية في الادب التركماني من خلال شعر ونثر الشاعر خضر لطفي
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Vatan ve hürriyet aşkının ilk ve en Kuvvetli örneklerinden Türkmen topraklarında yetişen yüzlerce Şairlerden biri Hıdır Lütfü’dür. Düşmana yar, öz evladına ağyar, yumuşak tabiatlı, yardımı ve milletini seven bir insandır. Şairin duygusu her dem yükseklere yücelirdi. O bilgili bir şair olduğu için şiirinde türlü türlü bilgi ile ögütleri arkasında bırakmamış onun duygusu bir bulak gibi her dem durmadan coşardı.
Onun en çok sevdiği varlıklar yurdu ile ulusuydı, ve tek acısı onların ilerleme ile yükselemesi içın bir haykırıydı.
Şair her zaman yurdunun ufukunda dolaşıp ulusunun bugünkü ve geleck torunları için yanıklı duyguları ile bir yol gosterıci gibi olmuştur.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Assessment of Air Pollution around Durra Refinery (Baghdad) from Emission NO2 Gas at April Month
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Nitrogen dioxide NO2 is one of the most dangerous contaminant in the air, its toxic gas that cause disturbing respiratory effects, most of it emitted from industrial sources especially from the stack of power plants and oil refineries. In this study Gaussian equations modelled by Matlab program to state the effect of pollutant NO2 gas on area around Durra refinery, this program also evaluate some elements such as wind and stability and its effect on stacks height. Data used in this study is the amount of fuel oil and fuel gas burn inside refinery at a year 2017. Hourly April month data chosen as a case study because it’s unsteady month. After evaluate emission rate of the all fuel and calculate exit velocity from

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