Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
Autorías: Jehan Faris Yousif, Read Idrees Mahmood. Localización: Utopía y praxis latinoamericana: revista internacional de filosofía iberoamericana y teoría social. Nº. 1, 2020. Artículo de Revista en Dialnet.
Abstract
Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
... Show MoreThis study had succeeded in producing a new graphical representation of James abacus called nested chain abacus. Nested chain abacus provides a unique mathematical expression to encode each tile (image) using a partition theory where each form or shape of tile will be associated with exactly one partition.Furthermore, an algorithm of nested chain abacus movement will be constructed, which can be applied in tiling theory.
BACKGROUND: Genetic skeletal abnormalities are a heterogeneous group of genetic disorders frequently presenting with disproportionate short stature. AIM OF THE STUDY: To give an idea about the frequency of genetic skeletal abnormalities, and to find out whether these disorders are really increasing in the last 16 years or not. METHODS: During the period extending from (Jan, 1st 2003-April, 1st 2007), all cases of genetic skeletal disorders referred to the Genetic Counseling Clinic, Medical City – Baghdad who were born after 1991 were included in this study as the post-war group; the pre-war group, included all cases of skeletal disorders referred prior to 1991 (Jan., 1st 1987-Jan., 1st 1990). The demographic parameters, family history of
... Show MoreIn this paper, some Bayes estimators of the reliability function of Gompertz distribution have been derived based on generalized weighted loss function. In order to get a best understanding of the behaviour of Bayesian estimators, a non-informative prior as well as an informative prior represented by exponential distribution is considered. Monte-Carlo simulation have been employed to compare the performance of different estimates for the reliability function of Gompertz distribution based on Integrated mean squared errors. It was found that Bayes estimators with exponential prior information under the generalized weighted loss function were generally better than the estimators based o
POSSIBILITY OF APPLICATION THE BALANCED SCORECARD IN THE IRAQI INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES: A PROPOSED MODEL
A new distribution, the Epsilon Skew Gamma (ESΓ ) distribution, which was first introduced by Abdulah [1], is used on a near Gamma data. We first redefine the ESΓ distribution, its properties, and characteristics, and then we estimate its parameters using the maximum likelihood and moment estimators. We finally use these estimators to fit the data with the ESΓ distribution
Iron is one of the abundant elements on earth that is an essential element for humans and may be a troublesome element in water supplies. In this research an AAN model was developed to predict iron concentrations in the location of Al- Wahda water treatment plant in Baghdad city by water quality assessment of iron concentrations at seven WTPs up stream Tigris River. SPSS software was used to build the ANN model. The input data were iron concentrations in the raw water for the period 2004-2011. The results indicated the best model predicted Iron concentrations at Al-Wahda WTP with a coefficient of determination 0.9142. The model used one hidden layer with two nodes and the testing error was 0.834. The ANN model coul
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The research aims to analyze the value chain of dairy products in Iraq (Abu Ghraib/Study Case) factories for the year 2022, where value chain rings are identified to discuss and track the most important determinants and problems in the value chain rings of dairy products and their basic and secondary activities, as well as calculate the value added of the products by subtracting the total revenues of products from their variable costs. Research data were collected for the period 2022. Preliminary information and data from its field sources and personal interviews were collected through a questionnaire prepa
Thrust blocks and restraint joints are the two most popular methods of counteracting the thrust force that generated at pipe fittings (bends, Tee, wye, reducers, dead ends, etc…). Both systems perform the same function, which is to prevent the joints from separating from the pipes. The aim of the study is to review previous studies and scientific theories related to the study and design of thrust blocks and restraint joints to study the behavior of both systems under thrust force and to study the factors and variables that affect the behavior of these systems. The behavior of both systems must be studied because they cannot be abandoned, as each system has conditions whose use is more feasible, scientific, and economic
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