Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
Theoretical and experimental investigations of the transient heat transfer parameters of constant heat flux source subjected to water flowing in the downward direction in closed channel are conducted. The power increase transient is ensured by step change increase in the heat source power. The theoretical investigation involved a mathematical modeling for axially symmetric, simultaneously developing laminar water flow in a vertical annulus. The mathematical model is based on one dimensional downward flow. The boundary conditions of the studied case are based on adiabatic outer wall, while the inner wall is subjected to a constant heat flux. The heat & mass balance equation derived for specified element of bulk water within the annulu
... Show MoreThis Book is the second edition that intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate/ postgraduate course in mathematical statistics. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters. Chapter One introduces events and probability review. Chapter Two devotes to random variables in their two types: discrete and continuous with definitions of probability mass function, probability density function and cumulative distribution function as well. Chapter Three discusses mathematical expectation with its special types such as: moments, moment generating function and other related topics. Chapter Four deals with some special discrete distributions: (Discrete Uniform, Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Geometric, Neg
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da
... Show MoreTen species of whiteflies (Hemiptera, Aleyrodidae) representing six genera were studied from a collection from different localities in the middle of Iraq. These species are Acaudaleyrodes rachipora (Singh, 1931); Bemisia afer (Priesner and Hosny,1934); Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius, 1889); Dialeurodes citri (Ashmead,1885); Dialeurodes kirkaldy (Kotinsky, 1907); Neomaskellia andropogonis Corbett, 1926; Siphoninus phillyreae (Haliday, 1835); Trialeurodes ricini (Misra, 1924); Trialeurodes vapovariorum (Westwood,1856) and Trialeurodes irakeensis (Al-Malo and Abdul-Rassoul, 2000). Notes are given on their localities, date of c
... Show MoreIn this paper we prove the boundedness of the solutions and their derivatives of the second order ordinary differential equation x ?+f(x) x ?+g(x)=u(t), under certain conditions on f,g and u. Our results are generalization of those given in [1].
Gypsum is one of the important construction materials in Iraq in plastering surfaces and gypsum board , the ability of gypsum to give a comfortable an aesthetic ambiance as a construction material increase the need of gypsum , The particle size , total surface area and particle size distribution were factors affecting plaster properties used for construction properties . In this study gypsum paste was used with different mixing ratios of particle size and studied the physical properties of these types of pastes named (standard consistency ,setting time ,density) and compressive strength . The results showed that the water to gypsum ratio increased with increasing the fineness of the gypsum to (0.75%) and the setting time to the maxi
... Show MoreThis study had succeeded in producing a new graphical representation of James abacus called nested chain abacus. Nested chain abacus provides a unique mathematical expression to encode each tile (image) using a partition theory where each form or shape of tile will be associated with exactly one partition.Furthermore, an algorithm of nested chain abacus movement will be constructed, which can be applied in tiling theory.