Given that the Crimean and Congo hemorrhagic fever is one of the deadly viral diseases that occur seasonally due to the activity of the carrier “tick,” studying and developing a mathematical model simulating this illness are crucial. Due to the delay in the disease’s incubation time in the sick individual, the paper involved the development of a mathematical model modeling the transmission of the disease from the carrier to humans and its spread among them. The major objective is to comprehend the dynamics of illness transmission so that it may be controlled, as well as how time delay affects this. The discussion of every one of the solution’s qualitative attributes is included. According to the established basic reproduction number, the stability analysis of the endemic equilibrium point and the disease-free equilibrium point is examined for the presence or absence of delay. Hopf bifurcation’s triggering circumstance is identified. Using the center manifold theorem and the normal form, the direction and stability of the bifurcating Hopf bifurcation are explored. The next step is sensitivity analysis, which explains the set of control settings that have an impact on how the system behaves. Finally, to further comprehend the model’s dynamical behavior and validate the discovered analytical conclusions, numerical simulation has been used.
The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.
Because the studying of time series can get by building, analysis the models and then forecasting gives the priority for the practicing in different fields, therefore the identification and selection of the model is of great importance in spite of its difficulties.
The selection of a standard methods has the ability for estimation the errors in the estimated the parameters for the model, and there will be a balance between the suitability and the simplicity of the model.
In the analysis of d
... Show MoreThe subject of demand on oil derivative has occupied an important position at present time in the daily life context. The fuel of benzene and gas oil and kerosene is one of basic elements of that concern, and on local , regional and international levels. The oil derivatives have played a leading role in determining the course and nature of development since early 1970 to the present time whether in the productive Arab countries or the importing. The researcher set out from the hypothesis that the increase of the local consumer demand on some of the oil derivatives is because of the internal and external factors accompanied by the inability of the productive capability and local production to confront this increase, and the resort
... Show MoreThe electrical and thermal performance of a typical single pass hybrid photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) air collector is modeled, simulated and analyzed for two selected case studies in Iraq. An improved mathematical thermo-electrical model is derived in terms of design, operating and climatic parameters of the hybrid solar collector to evaluate its important characteristics: collector flow and heat removal factors, PV maximum power point and its temperature coefficient, and overall power and efficiency. Unlike previous PV/T thermal models, the present model is obtained with some additions and corrections in radiation and convection heat coefficients for the top loss and for the air duct with more applicable sky temperature correlation. The well
... Show MoreObjectives To determine the prevalence of oral lesions by age and gender among the pediatric population in Iraq. Materials and methods A review of the archives of the oral pathology department of Baghdad University from, 1970 Materials and Methods: A review of the archives of the oral pathology department of Baghdad University from 1970 to 2013 for all biopsies from children aged 0–15 years old. Results A total of 1286 child specimens represented 11.98% of all biopsied lesions. The pyogenic granuloma was the most frequent lesion in children, and the periapical cyst was the most frequent lesion from an odontogenic origin. The incidence of malignant lesions was higher in the 0–3 age group than other groups. Conclusions The majority of les
... Show MoreAPDBN Rashid, International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences/ RIMAK, 2023