يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
It is very known how great is the role of the Jewish writers in the system of the Zionist movement. The movement relied on writers and writers to carry out their programs, especially those pertaining to the creation of a "national homeland" for Jews. Most Jewish writers sang of Palestine even though they were not born there.
On such a basis, we have followed closely the writings of writers, critics and others by the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century. We found that these writings are based on one common question: What is the fate of the Jewish people?
Most of these writings were accompanied by Theodor Herzl's proj
... Show MoreOur research comes to shed light on Iraqi literature as literature that arose in special circumstances alongside foreign literature. Using comparative research methods, we chose to highlight two distinguished writers, who have their mark in the world of literature. The first is the Iraqi writer Maysaloun Hadi, who is considered an icon of Iraqi feminist literature, and the second is the French writer Le Clézieu, who won the Nobel in 2008. We will see through the research how the two authors expressed their views of modernity and urbanism. And how each of them separately portrayed the psychological and moral projections that formed the essence of man today.
Résumé
Notre recherche abord un des points inc
... Show MoreAbstract
Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia
... Show MoreThe study aimed at interpreting the role of architectural design quality in in build competitiveness model in accordance with the proposal included the idea of architectural design quality for its removal; interesting design factors of the environment, good design of the spaces, and design aesthetic explanatory variable. The competitiveness dimensions; the level of innovation, stimulate research, and the quality of the company's products, and activating the role of human resources, entrepreneurship, profitability, market share and competitiveness, variable responsive. The study of construction companies in the Ministry of Housing and Construction has taken the Iraqi society for the study. The sample consisted of (48) manage
... Show MoreThe article describes the basic principles of modeling a dictionary article in the “Dictionary of the Language of Russian Folklore Lexicon epics” (M. A. Bobunova, A. T. Khrolenko). Among such principles are the principle of linguocentrism (representation of universal cognitions in strict observance of the traditions of lexicographic science), the principle of anthropocentrism (language learning as a means of human consciousness / subconsciousness), the principle of expansionism (attracting material from various knowledge bases), the principle of explanatory ("explanatory moment"), and fractal principle (synergistic potential of the presented material: nonlinearity and self-similarity; hierarchical organizati
... Show MoreThere is a mutual relationship between the form of a text and its meaning so as separating these two or devaluating the role of one of them leads to the absence of the value therein. Thus, a translation is important as to how it relates the details of a text. That is, the text has special features which go beyond form, and these set out its distinctiveness. Here, we tackle Saleh al-Jafari's Arabic translation of "Rubbayat al-Khayyam" of Naysapour descriptively and analytically by depending on extracts from the original text. This translation is evaluated on the basis of Spanish critic Maria Carmen Valero Garces. Herein, we discuss the effectiveness of this theory in the criticism of literary texts. It has been concluded that al-Jaf
... Show MoreOccupy public investment spending, a great deal of attention since the thirties of the last century, to play important role in economic and social development process and therefore most of the countries are trying different degree of economic development to the completion of the largest amount of public investment, especially in infrastructure, which is one of the pillars essential to economic development, and in order to maximize utilization of the completion of public investment should focus on achieving efficiency in completion.
The current reality of public projects in Iraq, indicating the absence of several key characteristics that must be provided if these proje
Abstract
This research’s goal is to restore and to revive the jurisprudence of Mother of Believers (Um alMuaamineen) “Um Salmah” "may God bless her", and to highlight her outstanding assimilation and understanding of religion and her conscious thought. The current research is a comparative scientific theoretical study represented in the comparison of jurisprudence of “Um Salamah” with Hadiths of fasting and pilgrimage rules as well as the duration mentioned in jurisprudence of for doctrines( 4 schools of thought )to identify these hadiths with the inclusion and discussion of their evidence.
The current research included two topics: the first one is to identify and introduce
... Show MoreThe research aims to highlight on the reasons of financial & managerial corruption phenomena and to suggest systems & methods that promote controlling and developing the mechanism to combat corruption it also highlights on the ways that should available to enable the three regulatory agencies to reduce this phenomenon. The research depends on the following hypothesis "the governance of state institutions and the application of electronic government with depending on a correct mechanism to crossing auditing and the equilibrium performance model well help to reduce corruption phenomenon in Iraq" the two researchers have been concluded some conclusions the main one is that so many reasons of corruption starting from the bad
... Show MoreThis paper aims at providing the teaching staff members with the necessary skills so as to become capable of tackling various situations, and treating daily problems that face students learning Spanish as a Second Language. This is made as an attempt to make teachers of foreign languages in general acquainted with modern trends of teaching with less complicated methods, specifically in teaching e earlier stages of foreign languages.
Abstracto:
En el presente trabajo pretendemos dotar al docente no nativo de Lenguas extranjeras, con algunos de los métodos necesari
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