يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
من خلال ملاحظة الباحثتين الميدانية لمستوى الأداء الفني لمنتخب ناشئات القطر بالجمناستك لمهارة قفزة اليدين الأمامية على جهاز منصة القفز الحديثة لاحظن وجود مشكلة تكمن في ضعف هذا الأداء والذي يؤثر على بعض المتغيرات البيوكينماتيكية لهذه المهارة مما يؤدي إلى عدم أداء المهارة بالشكل الصحيح ، وتعزو الباحثتان ذلك الضعف إلى قلة الدفع بالرجلين والذراعين . لذا ارتأت الباحثتان إجراء هذا البحث الذي يهدف إلى تنمية القوة
... Show More Thsst researcher problem of delays faced by researchers are all waiting to evaluate their standards by the experts who must take their views to extract the truth Virtual important step first step in building standards whatsoever, then the difference of opinion among experts about the paragraphs Whatever the scope of their functions, leading to confusion in maintaining these paragraphs or delete? Or ignore the views and opinion of the researcher to maintain the same? Or as agreed upon with the supervisor if he was a student? Especially if the concepts of a modern new building.
Therefore, the researcher sought to try to find a solution to her problem to conduct an experiment to test building steps
The present article discusses innovative word-formation processes in Internet texts, the emergence of new derivative words, new affixes, word-formation models, and word-formation methods. Using several neologisms as an example, the article shows both the possibilities of Internet word-making process and the possibilities of studying a newly established work through Internet communication. The words selected for analysis can be attributed to the keywords of the current time. (In particular, the words included in the list of "Words of 2019") there are number of words formed by the suffix method, which is the traditional method of the Russian word formation. A negation of these words is usually made thro
... Show MoreThe goal of this study was to investigate the protein peroxidation role by measuring serum levels of advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP) in type 2 diabetic patients with or without retinopathy and comparing them to controls to see if circulating AOPP levels can be used as a detection biomarker for DR. And see which of the two widely used antidiabetic treatment groups had the most impact on this oxidative stress marker. The groups were divided into two subgroups: 1) 70 type 2 diabetic patients (36 male, 34 female), 35 with diabetic retinopathy (DR) and 35 with no evidence of DR, and 2) non-diabetic controls (11 male, 9 female) were chosen from Ibn AL-Haitham Hospital for Ophthalmology and a Specialized Center for Endocrinology and Dia
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Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
... Show MoreIn this paper, the fuzzy logic and the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number were presented, as well as some properties of the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number and semi- parametric logistic regression model when using the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number. The output variable represents the dependent variable sometimes cannot be determined in only two cases (response, non-response)or (success, failure) and more than two responses, especially in medical studies; therefore so, use a semi parametric logistic regression model with the output variable (dependent variable) representing a trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number.
the model was estimated on simulati
... Show MoreEstablishing the systemic character of vocabulary, its relationship with other language systems, their interdependence creates the possibility of a comprehensive scientific study and description of the lexical system of each language, as well as contrastive comparative studies of several languages, including their phraseological composition.
It is known that not all words-components of phraseological units are equivalent in their role in the formation of the semantic content of phraseological units. In this regard, it is necessary to introduce the concept of a lexical dominant. To this we include words, which are kind of centers around which the entire semantic complex of phraseological units, the entire set of its words-componen
... Show MoreThe study aims to investigate the effect of the Six Thinking Hats Strategy on the achievement of essay writing skills among third-year students in Arabic Language and Literature who are Persian speakers enrolled in the course of Essay Writing (III) at Shiraz University for the academic year 2019-2020. The sample of the study consisted of (15) male and female students who were taught according to the pre-posttest, using the quasi-experimental approach. After applying the statistical analysis on the scores of the post-test, the results showed that there are statistically significant differences in the average of students' achievement in the skills of essay writing in terms of using the Six Thinking Hats Strategy. The results also proved th
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The research aims to monitor the image of the man in the group (The Cart and the Rain) by the storyteller (Badiaa Amin); With the aim of highlighting an aspect of feminist writing, especially with regard to the relationship of women to men, and determining the form adopted by the storyteller in drawing the features of men.
The research used the descriptive-analytical method in the space of its textual formation, which aims to stand on the text and deconstruct its narrative significance. To provide a comprehensive picture of it.
Three images of the man appeared in the group's stories, represented by (the authoritarian, the negative, and the positive), and the image of the authoritarian ma
... Show MoreBanks was one of the institutions that are highly concerned with the issue of performance evaluation, in order to achieve optimal use of resources that enable them to achieve operational and strategic objectives both in light of the global competition fierce for the start of the research problem of banks to adopt in assessing the performance of the realization of just the traditional financial indicators which has become insufficient to keep pace with the constant evolution in the business environment, which requires work on the use of the necessary information needed to evaluate the performance of all the Bank's activities through
the use of the Balanced Scorecard method. The research aims to shed light on the dimensions of perf
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