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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الارهاب وتداعياتة على الامن والسلم الاجتماعي (دراسة ميدانية للعوائل المتضررة من الارهاب في مدينة بغداد )
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     تعد ظاهرة الارهاب المتزايدة في العالم من اخطر اشكال التهديدات الامنية التي تواجة الدول لانها تستهدف في جانب مهم منها امن واستقرارومستقبل مجتمعاتها لاسيما اذا جمع الفعل الارهابي بين مطامع واهداف القوى الخارجية التي لا تريد استخدام ادواتها المباشرة وانما بالاعتماد على                   محركات في خلق الازمات داخل الدول المستهدفة

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of External Oversight in The Organization of Policy Import: A model of Supreme Audit
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  The construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we found that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which  reflected  the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given to the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an o

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of External Oversight in The Organization of Policy Import: A model of Supreme Audit
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The construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we find that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which is reflected at the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given and the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an overlap betwee

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of analytical procedures in enhancing confidence AndCredibility of the financial statements presented to the Tax Administration
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The research aims to Measuring the auditors' commitment with the analytical procedures of the economic units of the research sample in carrying out their professional duties and the importance of this commitment to the tax administration and the extent of their reliance on the external auditor's report and the financial statements in determining the income tax and its effect on the tax revenues.

The research depends on a main hypothesis stating that "The use of analytical procedures by the external auditor has a positive impact on the availability of confidence and credibility in the financial statements presented to the tax administration and has a positive impact on the tax revenues."

The resear

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Nov 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Creative Accounting Practices on the Reliability of Financial Statements : Applied Research in the National General Insurance Company
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The study aims to highlighting the Creative Accounting practices, identifying  their impact on non reliability of financial statement of Insurance companies and Iraqi Public Reinsurance Company. Certain executive managements resort to creative accounting to falsely portray a better image to financial statement users by means of a set of techniques and mechanisms. Thus, impacting the company activities, The study was carried out in state insurance companies and Iraqi Public Reinsurance Company. Miller model is adopted to measure earning management practices. It is one of the tools to detect creative accounting practices and to measure reliability of accounting information of financial statements by applying  “White” scale on

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Asocaial acceptance to ward slow learnes by their normal peers
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هدفت الدراسة الحالية الى التعرف ما اذا كان هناك تقبل اجتماعي للتلاميذ بطيئي من قبل اقرانهم العاديين؟ وكذلك معرفة ما اذا كان هناك فروق ذات دلالة في التقبل الاجتماعي بين افراد عينة الدراسة على وفق المتغيرات الاتية:

أ- العمر (9-13)

ب- الجنس (ذكور –اناث)

ج- المرحلة الدراسية

د- الحالة الاقتصادية (جيدة –متوسطة –جيدة جدا)

    ولغرض تحقيق اه

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological adjustment and social relationship with the phenomenon of violence among children in pre-school stage
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The childhood is an important stage in building the character of the individual and where children acquire the most important experiences . providing proper growth requirements of the things follows assist them in achieving a stable and together Childhood is the violence of indicators that can determine whether personal or illness social .the social circumstances experienced community Iraqi and continues through crises successive wars and explosions and the displacement and that these events may lead to changes in the social behavior of individuals and may contribute to the spread of violence in Iraqi society and observed various forms in (home, school, street, and work), so it was natural that a child the first affected by these waves o

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Social Tolerance of Baghdad College students and its Relation With Parental Treatment Styles
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The social tolerance is one of the important variables in personality; it helps growth and development of individual's personality. Theories and the students affirmed that social Tolerance affects the society growth and development as well.
The presents study aims:
1. Estimating the social Tolerance for Baghdad College students.
2. Realizing how College students vary in social Tolerance according to:
Sex, (Male, Female) ٍSpecialization (Scientific, Humanity).
3. Realizing the nature of relationship between social Tolerance of College students and father and mother styles. To achieve this research goals the researcher established parameter (scale) for social Tolerance applied to sample of (500) students male and female. Th

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Program in Reducing Stuttering and Social Anxiety among High-School Students
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The current study aims to assess the effectiveness of the cognitive-behavioral programs in reducing stuttering and social anxiety among high-school students. The researchers used the experimental design. The sample consists of (20) male students who reported the highest score on the stuttering severity scale and social anxiety scale. The sample was divided into experimental and control groups (each group consists of 10 participants). The researcher used the type and severity of stuttering scale developed by Onslow et al (2003), translated by Mahmoud Ismail and the social anxiety scale was prepared by the authors. The results showed that there are statistically significant differences in pre-post and follow-up tests amongst the experiment

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Educational and Psychological Effects of Social Networking websites on Iraqi Society
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The aim of the research is to identify the educational and psychological effects of the positive and negative aspects of using social networking websites. The researcher administered a number of questions to (250) users of different types of social networking websites. He analyzed his research results and obtained a number of results. The research has reached a number of recommendations and suggestion: Regulating the use of social media. Monitoring the parents of the sites used by children in a way that they do not feel they are observers. It is necessary to devote an hour daily to show the importance of real social life for children other than using social media. It is necessary to show the importance of choosing friends who hav

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