يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The researcher was interested in studying a crucial aspect of the systematic world music culture. He highlights the analysis of the harmonic construction in the musical compositions of the artist Khalil Ismail, where harmony is a significant Western musical science, a pillar of the structure of instrumental and vocal music.
It depends on the compositions of vertical sounds performed simultaneously, as tones coincide and are sometimes dissonant to give sound resonance that enriches musical work and attracts recipients. Hence, the researcher has many questions, including: Can the composition of the writings of the artist Khalil Ismail determine in an objective research framework? Is there a study on this subject in some detail? whic
A quadruped (four-legged) robot locomotion has the potential ability for using in different applications such as walking over soft and rough terrains and to grantee the mobility and flexibility. In general, quadruped robots have three main periodic gaits: creeping gait, running gait and galloping gait. The main problem of the quadruped robot during walking is the needing to be statically stable for slow gaits such as creeping gait. The statically stable walking as a condition depends on the stability margins that calculated particularly for this gait. In this paper, the creeping gait sequence analysis of each leg step during the swing and fixed phases has been carried out. The calculation of the minimum stability margins depends up
... Show Morecontent Analysis for Some Type of Pillows used in Iraqi houses
Vitamin D receptor (VDR) is a nuclear transcription factor that controls gene expression. Its impaired expression was found to be related to different diseases. VDR also acts as a regulator of different pathways including differentiation, inflammation, calcium and phosphate absorption, etc. but there is no sufficient knowledge about the regulation of the gene itself. Therefore, a better understanding of the genetic and epigenetic factors regulating the VDR may facilitate the improvement of strategies for the prevention and treatment of diseases associated with dysregulation of VDR. In the present investigation, a set of databases and methods were used to identify putative functional elements in the VDR locus. Histone modifications, CpG I
... Show MoreThe main challenge of military tactical communication systems is the accessibility of relevant information on the particular operating environment required for the determination of the waveform's ideal use. The existing propagation model focuses mainly on broadcasting and commercial wireless communication with a highs transceiver antenna that is not suitable for numerous military tactical communication systems. This paper presents a study of the path loss model related to radio propagation profile within the suburban in Kuala Lumpur. The experimental path loss modeling for VHF propagation was collected from various suburban settings for the 30-88 MHz frequency range. This experiment was highly affected by ecological factors and existing
... Show Moreبكل تواضع، نقدم لكم هذا الكتاب بعنوان "الصحة النفسية في عصر التكنولوجيا: تحليل للتحديات والفرص المتاحة". يسعى الكتاب إلى إلقاء الضوء على العلاقة المعقدة بين عالمنا الرقمي المتنامي وصحة عقولنا وقلوبنا. نعيش في زمن يشهد تغييرات كبيرة نتيجة التقدم التكنولوجي، حيث أصبحت الأدوات الرقمية جزءًا أساسيًا من حياتنا اليومية، تؤثر في أساليب تواصلنا، تعلمنا، وتفاعلنا مع محيطنا. لذا، يصبح من الضروري فهم تأثير هذه التقنيا
... Show MoreThe economy of a city has an important role not only in its establishment but also in its development. This is quite clear in the city of Baghdad throughout its history since its building in 762 A.D. In addition, most of its problems that the city is suffering from are basically related to not giving enough importance to the economic factors in the master planning of Baghdad since 1950’s. This may explain the failiars of master plans in dealing with the actual population growth and the city's inability to absorb such increases and interrelated and diverse activities which are negatively reflected on the economic variables particularly the effect on the land values, and the strong competitions amongst the land uses without previ
... Show MoreThe study of traffic on the roads the governorate of Karbala, Where is the study of traffic on the roads measure is necessary to determine the extent of the road and highlighting the importance of its role in the transfer of individuals from original to destination as well as the importance of the region that attracted its movement. This research aims to analyze the traffic in the governorate of Karbala through the study and analysis of surveys of traffic that were made in the governorate. Based on this analysis, it has been reached to identify volumes of the traffic and its density and how the roads are efficient and accommodating these volumes, the results of the traffic survey of the studied roads in the area of the study have shown t
... Show MoreThe most common cause of death is cardiovascular disease (CVD), with ischemic heart disease being the most notable type. There is a propensity to raise the sensitivity of methods in contemporary laboratory for diagnosing of CVD, and assessing key as CVD bio-indicators. The urgent task is to seek for different indicators as a hopeful tool for early detection and monitoring of myocardial infarction in blood samples only. This study comprised 117 Volunteers, recorded with both genders in the age range of 32-64 years old. The volunteers were categorized into two groups: 67patients of myocardial infarction, other group embraced 50 healthy individuals. The samples of blood were collected and directed for biochemical analysis to evaluate estr
... Show MoreWielands Hauptwerk die Geschichte des Agathon (1766/73,1794) ist
der wichtigste Roman der Aufklärungsepoche (1720-1785). Die Verlegung der
Handlung in die Antike widerspiegelt die kulturelle Blüte der vorbildhaften Zeit
zwischen 5. und 4. Jhd. v. Chr.
Beim Lesen des Romans findet man unzählige (über 70) Namen aus der
Antike; von Herrschern, Strategen, Philosophen, Dichtern, Künstlern . . . etc,
woüber man unbedingt informiert werden muss, um deren Zusammenhang in der
Geschichte zu verstehen. Vorübergehend erwähnte Personennamen gibt Wieland
meistens als Beispiel für eine Situation oder ein Verhalten. Dies gab mir den
Anstoß, die wichtigsten Figuren
... Show More