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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of financial policy instruments to reduce the deficit of the State budget to the IMF terms: Applied Research at the Iraqi Ministry of finance - budget service
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Abstract search seeks to clarify the role and the importance of financial and fiscal policy adopted by the Iraqi Government during the years (2015 – 2018) to meet federal public deficit, as the Iraqi economy to shocks from falling global oil prices and terrorist attack ISIS, so the State budget suffered from a severe lack of income as a result of its reliance on revenues from selling crude oil and in return the high proportion of public expenditures. Especially military to counter these attacks that by studying the results of the implementation of budgets and analysis and statement Causes of disabilities and assessment of these policies and procedures imposed by the International Monetary Fund. the research aims to show how increased g

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 29 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE SEMIOTICS OF PROPAGANDA SPEECH IN SOCIAL MEDIA SITES (A Semiotic Study of the News Reports on the Israeli "Makan" Channel)
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Technological and digital development has allowed the emergence of many methods of producing semantics on social media sites within semiotic and propagandistic frameworks. This is what made the image appear in different molds and shapes, especially as it is the first material for visual perception.
This made the Israeli propaganda discourse use it as an important tool to manage the content of suggestive messages with semiological connotations. By doing so, such tool uses social networking sites as an appropriate environment to achieve those goals, which are related to cases of manipulating emotions and minds. It, moreover, changes convictions, attitudes, trends and behaviors according to what the propaganda planner wants.
Many Isra

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 31 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاخطاء الأخطاء اللغوية والأسلوبية في مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي وتأثيرها في سلامة اللغة العربية (الفيس بوك أنموذجاً)
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أظهرت الدراسات الاعلامية واللغوية السابقة التي تناولت واقع اللغة العربية في شبكات التواصل الاجتماعي ثلاث مشكلات لغوية في هذا الميدان الأولى تمثلت بالثنائية اللغوية التي تجلت باستعمال عدد من مفردات اللغة الانكليزية الى جانب اللغة العربية ، والثانية تمثلت بالإزدواجية اللغوية التي تجلت في مزاحمة اللهجة المحلية للفصحى في النصوص المكتوبة ، والثالثة ارتبطت بمشكلة الضعف اللغوي في مستويات اللغة الكتابية والمع

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of creative accounting practices that are reflected on the sincerity and fairness of financial statements on tax evasion
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The research aims to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is to educate the management of companies operating in the private sector about the advantages and risks of using creative accounting practices, as on the one hand they serve the interests of the company and improve its image, and on the other hand it exposes it to the risks of non-compliance with tax laws and legislation or the risks of default and bankruptcy as a result of exploiting gaps and flexibility in the application Accounting standards, and in line with the objectives and through the research problem that was formulated in the form of a question (Are their creative accounting practices that are reflected in the honesty and fairness of financia

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial analysis of mortality older population in the city of Baghdad , for the period (1997 - 2013)
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The current study is concerned with the analysis of spatial and temporal to death the elderly population in the city of Baghdad and at the level of administrative units Minor (districts and the areas) depending on the general population census of the province of Baghdad, data for 1997 and data from the Ministry of Health Department of Health and Vital Statistics for 2013.
The study showed differing age and quality of mortality rates at the level of administrative units of the study area, and notes the high mortality rates of elderly people of all age groups in 2013 compared to 1997, and this is due to security conditions after the USA occupation, and the accompanying conditions have affected the increase in mortality rates.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of monetary policy in achieving financial stability of Iraqi banks for the period (2009 - 2017)
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The responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimating and Analyzing Food Security Indicators in Selected Arab Countries for the Period (1996 - 2012)
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        The study hypothesize that the majority of Arab countries  show a poor agricultural economic efficiency which resulted in a weak productive capacity of wheat in the face of the demand, which in turn led to the fluctuation of the rate of self-sufficiency and thus increase the size of the food gap. The study aims at estimating and analyzing the food security indicators for their importance in shaping the Arabic agricultural policy, which aims to achieve food security through domestic production and reduce the import of food to less possible extent. Some of the most important results reached by the study were that the increase in the amount of consumption of wheat in the countries of t

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The importance of direct foreign investment on development of Iraqi oil industry for the period (2003-3010)
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Oil industry played a major role in delineating the course and type o development in both imported and exported Arabic countries alike where its revenues has perform an essential role in forming programs and plans of development on both national and international level in addition to anticipation of future consuming.

Iraq, as an oil producer country with a revenues –based economy depends on oil in building its economy totally including its infrastructure having a the greatest conformed reservoir which make the government budget depends largely on oil revenues where its strategic importance lies in funding all aspects of expenders as it is considered the prime source of foreign currency.  The chall

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of monetary policy in achieving financial stability of Iraqi banks for the period (2009 - 2017)
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The responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Economic Conditions of Living in the City of Mosul: Income and Labor Market during the Period 2004-2007
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Abstract

 

This study cares for the economic living conditions in Mosul City. Its importance lies in the critical period that has been covered
(2002-2007), which was dominated by far–reaching events at political economic and social levels.
Among the main results that have been revealed are the following: the rate of economic growth in the City has been the lowest among major urban centers in Iraq. Besides, real income per capita in the City has stayed stagnant during the period of the study. However, the inequality in distribution of income has decreased. The main bulk of the city's population rely on their income from wages and salari

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