ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
In this research study, I tried to trace the epic effect to learn how it was understood and how it was used. Following the descriptive and analytical approach in the research, the first chapter dealt with a presentation of the methodological framework of the problem, the goal, the limits of the research, the importance and the need for it and the definition of terms, as well as the theoretical framework which consisted of two topics, including the impact of the epic theater on the world theater and the second the effect of the epic theater on the Arab theater, This came by tracing the epic impact on the world stage of the Greeks, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and the Arab theater of the twentieth century.
As for the second
The Iraqi and Iranian pottery has a significant role in the contemporary world pottery space, despite the fact that influences created those formulation, thus the researcher supposes that there is a relation between the potter and his environment within Iraq's environment and Iran's environment, which are similar at times and different at other times. The researcher, hence, found himself in front of a number of questions:
1- How much was the Iraqi potter inspired by the environment compared to the Iranian potter?
2- Has the Iraqi and Iranian pottery been really inspired by the environment items or there were modified metaphors?
The current research aims at (identifying the influential environmental characteristics in the Iraq
Organizations nowadays, whether public or private organizations, productive or service (such as banks), face major challenges as a result of rapid and continuous changes, and in front of these challenges traditional management operations and tools become unable to make the organization able to work, which makes it imperative for these organizations to follow the methods and management practices, including the proposed knowledge risk management and strategic direction so that it can elevate its actions at the level of developments in reality, in the sense that these organizations and in the light of environmental developments to characterize their strategic direction as an intellectual approach characterized by mo
... Show MoreGross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
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The research study focused on the need to clarify the relationship between the Websites of Iraqi Newspapers and their roles in covering the internal crises in Iraq. The selection of Iraqi websites for the newspapers Al-Zaman and Al-Sabah was adopted as one of the most important media with a wide audience; and as a model of hot news and continuous coverage of those sites since 2003 so far. As a result, this necessitated the emergence of new types of methods of editing and writing news stories related to Iraq.
Consequently, the enormous and rapidly changing amount of Iraq news, the process of preparing and creating news has become a complex industry
... Show MoreThis study is about the role of the Internet in spreading rumors, especially through social networking sites "Facebook" model as the effectiveness of social networks lies in the speed of transmission of events; these two characteristics are important to the public, making the Internet a strong contender for television and its relationship with the public. That's why we find that the Internet today has become a fertile environment for the growth and spread of rumors. The more limited the platforms and places of publication, the greater the responsibility in the search for the original source in spreading this or that rumor, as the Internet is considered an easy means in the production, spreading and re-spreading of
... Show MoreIn accounting studies, more than one method is used to measure income and balance sheets elements. One of these methods is called the fair value, which use to determine the assets and liabilities ad it includes the benefits or self-satisfaction ability. This paper aims to focus on the importance of fair value as a basis of accounting measurement and its effects to achieve the relevant characteristics by using the equation is used by (Kythreotis) in his research, And Also , Editing this equation depending on the financial data and information of Iraqi Banks as a case.
The capital in the bank is the important element in establishing it, because it maintains the banking sector in the event of exposure to losses or risks In addition to contributing to the provision of liquidity And protection of depositors' money from potential and unexpected losses. There is also a relationship between the prices of shares and the indicators of the durability of the capital owned, considering that the shares are the components of the bank capital The study limited the indicators of capital to assets and capital to deposits, capital to loans and financial investments Where the most important conclusions are the damage to the detriment of shareholders in contrast to the depositors in the case of increasing the propo
... Show MoreThe research specified with study the relation between the market share for the sample research banks and the amount of the achieved revenues from the investment, where the dominated belief that there potentiality enhancing the revenue on investment with the increase of the banks shares in their markets after their success in achieving rates of successive growth in their sales of sales and to a suitable achieve market coverage for their products and they have dissemination and suitable promotion activity, the market share represented the competition for the banks, and the markets pay attention to the market share as a strategic objective and to maintain them also increasi
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