ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Interested current Research measuring damage currency Swap by converting The ministry of higher Education and scientific Research money The Iraqi dinar To U.S dollar by Trade Bank Of Iraq , And that The damage Generated resulting from Deferent Between the Exchange Rate adopted From Central Bank of Iraq and Market Exchange Rate adopted by The Trade Bank Of Iraq , and Which led to the greet damage ( losses ) in Bearing by the ministry, which led to the reduction of the financial allocations for licensed curriculum outside of Iraq , and this in turn leads to reduction in the number of students Sender ( scholarships ) outside Iraq.
Where the estimated loss (damage) that suffer by the Ministry of H
... Show MoreSeveral problems have emerged as a result of urban expansion or the connection of urban areas with rural areas. This process has led to the urbanization of rural areas, and to have overlapping edges and margins of areas, which were outside the basic design of the city. Accordingly, the present research assumes that the accelerating growth of Baghdad population has contributed significantly to the process of unplanned urbanization. Thus, the study aims to examine the factors that have led to an increase of urban sprawl at the expense of the agricultural land. The study has thus adopted the descriptive, analytical, and historical approaches relying on the simple linear regression method to predict the phenomenon of urban expansion and its
... Show MoreBased on the diazotization-coupling reaction, a new, simple, and sensitive spectrophotometric method for determining of a trace amount of (BPF) is presented in this paper. Diazotized metoclopramide reagent react with bisphenol F produces an orange azo-compound with a maximum absorbance at 461 nm in alkaline solution. The experimental parameters were optimized such as type of alkaline medium, concentration of NaOH, diazotized metoclopramide amount, order additions, reaction time, temperature, and effect of organic solvents to achieve the optimal performance for the proposed method. The absorbance increased linearly with increasing bisphenol F concentration in the range of 0.5-10 μg mL-1 under ideal conditions, with a correlati
... Show MoreThis research dealt with the impact of internal control on tax performance using balanced scorecard indicators because of its special importance in improving tax performance and reform. The internal control system is a safety valve for senior management in all organizations, it plays an important role in the regularity and development of work and the fight against corruption To provide reliable and accurate data and information, follow up on compliance with laws, regulations and instructions. The aim of this research is to demonstrate how control affects tax performance and how to adapt internal control components to improve tax performance. In the General Authority for taxes and its branches,. The research resulted in a number of conclu
... Show MoreThis research Sheds highlights the procedural protections that must be enjoyed by the consumer in the face of the product, which is the protection of no less dangerous than the substantive protection of our obligations and duties delivered by the legislature upon the product of consumer interest, what is the benefit of the right if the access road to him complicated, so know The consumer has a right to the face of the product, but leaves the claim, either to ignorance For access to this right either to the difficulty of connecting to him.
That this research modest attempt we tried through which to focus on the way to the consumer behavior of arrived right, as we tried to highlight the weaknesses and the complexity of the procedure to
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
... Show Moreتعد الثقافة التنظيمية في المجال االداري وكذلك الرياضي من المفاهيم الحديثة لذا وجب التعرف عليها من عدة اتجاهات لمعرفة تكوينها واب عادها والنظريات التي تناولتها لتكوين رؤية تختلف عن االخرين لما لها من دور مهم ونافع في مختلف المؤسسات ومنها االتحادات الرياضية، ولعل لعلوم الرياضة واالختبار والقياس على وجه الخصوص الدور الرئيس في المساعدة بإيجاد وسيلة علمية وتطبيقها على االعضاء لمعرفة انماط الثقافة لديهم ومن
... Show More In this research study, I tried to trace the epic effect to learn how it was understood and how it was used. Following the descriptive and analytical approach in the research, the first chapter dealt with a presentation of the methodological framework of the problem, the goal, the limits of the research, the importance and the need for it and the definition of terms, as well as the theoretical framework which consisted of two topics, including the impact of the epic theater on the world theater and the second the effect of the epic theater on the Arab theater, This came by tracing the epic impact on the world stage of the Greeks, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and the Arab theater of the twentieth century.
As for the second