ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Experiment was conducted in Baghdad, three factor were used in this research included Two types of Plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented the main plot, Three forward speeds of the tillage was the second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and Three levels of Soil Moisture was third factor included 21, 18 and 14 % in all of Vertical and Lateral Plowing Deviation, Practical and specific productivity, actual time for plowing one donam and appearance (goodness) of Tillage represented by the number of clods > 10 cm in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied. the experiment was used Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications and Le
... Show MoreMeasuring the level of communicative competence in news headlines and the level of stylistic and semantic processing in its formulation requires creating a quantitative scale based on the bases on building the scales and their standards. As judging by scientific of journalism studies lies in the possibility of quantifying the journalistic knowledge, i.e. the ability of this knowledge to shift from qualitative language to its equivalent in the language of numbers.
News headlines and editorial processing are one of the journalistic knowledges that should be studied, analyzed stylistically and semantically; their conclusions drawn and expressed in numbers. Press knowledge is divided into two types:<
... Show MoreComplexity is the inherent characteristic of contemporary organizations. It is characterized by the intertwining and expansion of its relations, by the severe disorder and rapid change in its environment, which makes it suffer from a state of uncertainty in determining the direction of its future or the assessment of the rules governing its paths. All organizations tend to evolve with increasing sophistication, And to take measures that contribute to the simplification of the system as it moves towards complexity, allowing the administration to easily control its movement and directions, and the problem of complexity in the university is based on the entanglement and overlap in the goals and processes betwe
... Show MoreIn this study, the CR-39 detector technique was used, to estimate the uranium concentration from the soil in midland refineries Company (Doura refine (, Baghdad, Iraq. Uranium concentrations in soil samples have been measured using solid state nuclear track detector type CR-39. Nine soil samples were collected from different areas within the Doura refinery and other soil samples were collected form Abu Tayara Street and ALshortaa District outside the refinery for comparison. The results showed variable values for uranium concentrations. The average value of uranium concentration was found to be 0.37 ppm in doura refinery. For areas outside the refinery, the concentration of uranium was 0.008 ppm. Thes
... Show Moreيعد مفهوم العولمة ظاهرة عالمية كونها نزعة طاغية في الوقت الحالي منسوبة الى العالم ، ولم تدخل بعد قوائم المفردات في القواميس السياسية والاقتصادية . (الأسدي ،2004-ص88).وأن العولمة " Globlization أخذت مدلولان ، الاول يدل على الانفتاح وحرية التفكير ومتابعة الاكتشافات في مختلف المجالات والابتعاد عن الرتابة والروتين . اما الثاني فيدل على سطحية التفكير وحب التغيير لأجل التغيير ونبذ الماض
... Show MoreThe inflation phenomenon inherent to all economies in the world, including Iraq, and to find out the reasons for this phenomenon must be measured impact on the national economy, and is the index of consumer prices of the most common measure of inflation in order to find the means and the treatments needed and this can be reached through the study of the role of aggregates Commodity and its impact on the general trend of cash inflation, in Iraq for the period 2004 2009 to determine the groups lead to inflation in Iraq, where it emerged that the group rent is ranked first in the proportion of its contribution to the index of consumer prices, and food group is ranked second. The fuel and lighting group ranked third.
This paper aims to explain the effect of the taxes policy including direct & indirect taxes on supporting the domestic Investment in Iraq. This could help the official planners for drawing the future policies that help provoking (istumlating) the domestic investment in Iraq the quantitative analysis approach was adopted using regression model. The results showed the significance of the effects of both direct & indirect taxes policies on domestic as a simple correlation coefficient ( r ) of ( 0.6 ) , ( 0.64 ) respectively.
Abstract
Public debt has posed a major challenge to both developing and developed countries, which has focused attention on the optimal limits (threshold of debt) and its determinants.
The study examines the effect of the Public bank debt on the foreign reserves and the work of the foreign reserve as a limitation on the process of bank debt (part of the internal debt) for the period (2017-2004), in addition to finding the type and nature of the relationship between them according to the hypotheses of the study, Public bank debt and foreign reserves.
The study was based on data from the Iraqi banking sector, which showed that Iraq has a foreign reserve in line with internat
... Show MoreDespite the significant increase in public spending in Iraq, it was not directed toward the important sectors that have an important role in correcting the productive structure. Rather, most of the public expenditure was going to cover the required imports, or to face shocks, whether security or health, and this caused a continuous decrease in the volume of Iraq's exports of goods and services, as the aim of the study was to review the importance of public debt and its impact on the trade balance, as well as to know the economic policies that can contribute to strengthening the trade balance, as the study proved through the (ARDL) model that there is a direct relationship between the domestic debt and the net trade balance, and an invers
... Show MoreIn the present time, radioactive contamination is considered one of the most dangerous types of environmental pollution. It usually takes place because of a leakage of radioactive materials to one of the environment natural components, such as, water, air, and soil. Iraq is considered one of the most contaminated environments in the world; this is closely associated with the wars Iraq had suffered from; especially, in 1991 and 2003. Considering the importance of the radioactive contamination and its different health impacts on the population, the current paper is interested in studying this type of environmental contamination and its impact on the birth defects depending on the data available in the annual reports issued by the Iraqi min
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