ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
مفهوم البعد الواحد في الرسم العراقي المعاصر
The folkloric games widely considered as expressional forms of nations culture and their environment which can be an important element in Iraqi child theatre shows. For its moral and habits relation to the needs of children which present an effective mean to preserve the true identity of the society character and moral. The research concluded many topics considering the importance of folkloric games in the Iraqi child theatre, the first chapter studied the problem , the necessity , the aim of the research to clarify the importance of folkloric games in Iraqi child theatre, the second chapter is the theoretical part of the research that studied the concept of folkloric games and its implementation in Iraqi child theatre . the third chapte
... Show MoreCorruption is one of the barriers to economic growth and investment opportunities, and after the most serious security and stability, that corruption plagued the Iraqi economy is striking and has roots since the eighties of the last century to the present day.
The study aimed to identify practical impact of corruption on investment in the Iraqi economy and revealed the possibilities and obstacles to investment in Iraq and clarify the investment opportunities at the level of Iraq and the impact of corruption on investments.
The focus will be on the statement of the extent of corruption and investment in Iraq and the adoption of the style of economic measurement using cross-section
... Show Moreالنظام القانوني للمعاهدات الدولية في القانون العراقي
In this paper, the system of the power plant has been investigated as a special type of industrial systems, which has a significant role in improving societies since the electrical energy has entered all kinds of industries, and it is considered as the artery of modern life.
The aim of this research is to construct a programming system, which could be used to identify the most important failure modes that are occur in a steam type of power plants. Also the effects and reasons of each failure mode could be analyzed through the usage of this programming system reaching to the basic events (main reasons) that causing each failure mode. The construction of this system for FMEA is dependi
... Show MoreThis study presents the debonding propagation in single NiTi wire shape memory alloy into linear low-density polyethylene matrix composite the study of using the pull-out test. The aim of this study is to investigate the pull-out tests to check the interfacial strength of the polymer composite in two cases, with activation NiTinol wire and without activation. In this study, shape memory alloy NiTinol wire 2 mm diameter and linear fully annealed straight shape were used. The study involved experimental and finite element analysis and eventually comparison between them. This pull-out test is considered a substantial test because its results have a relation with behavior of smart composite materials. The pull-out test was carried out by a u
... Show MorePost-structural critical studies highlighted the importance of studying the texts surrounding the text as an important part in the process of receiving and understanding texts, and although this topic was dealt with by the ancient Arabs and Europeans, interest in it appeared clearly after the appearance of Gerard Genet's book (SEUILS), which separated it Text Thresholds. Or what he called paratexte, and dealt with them with interest as he reads them on books. With the development of semiotic studies, interest in paratexte studies began in a broader way and in various literary and non-literary texts, including journalistic texts. And since specialized magazines are one of the press releases that enjoy their privacy in terms of topics and
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Investment in human capital of renewable energy can be relied upon to get to achieve the goals of development is important for Iraq through the intellectual community cards creative able to innovate and develop what is so is study the effect of human investment on economic growth through the adoption of the index of national income as a function of variables independent ( human capital, physical capital) and this is built on the premise that the relationship direct correlation between economic growth and human investment, and it can measure the return on human investment, which is an incentive to increase human capital through education and the development of the economy in general have shown th
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the subject of measuring the competitive performance of the National Insurance Company and some of its branches (Basra, Ninwa, Kirkuk and Babil), Depending on the Revenue Growth Index at the activity level, and the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index RCAIAt the branch level,To measure the competitiveness of the company And some branches, As the problem of research in the lack of adoption by some companies in the insurance service sector on scientific indicators to measure their competitive performance, The aims of the research is to measure the competitiveness of the National Insurance Company, as well as the competitiveness of its branches according to the scientific method, One of the main Conclusions of the re
... Show MoreLibraries, information centers, and everything related to organizing and preparing information need to be periodically re-evaluated in order to stand on the level of quality, which means improving the general reality of these institutions to ensure sufficient satisfaction from beneficiaries of the services provided. This is what was worked on in this research, as one of the most important quality standards in libraries and information centers, LibQUAL+®, was applied in one of the most important and oldest central university libraries, namely the Central Library of the University of Baghdad at its two locations, Al-Jadriya and Al-Waziriya. The sample of beneficiaries to whom the questionnaire was distributed reached 75 beneficiaries distrib
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