Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This study investigates the challenges encountered by first-grade intermediate students in learning the Arabic language. It aims to identify specific obstacles that hinder language acquisition and proficiency among this demographic. Through qualitative and quantitative methods, including surveys and interviews with students, teachers, and parents, the research highlights key issues such as limited vocabulary, difficulties in grammar, lack of engagement with the material, and inadequate teaching resources. The findings reveal a complex interplay between cognitive, social, and educational factors that contribute to these challenges. The study underscores the need for targeted interventions, such as enhanced pedagogical strategies and improved

This research explores the obstacles teachers encounter in executing the smart schools initiative within the framework of Iraq, where educational facilities and digital preparedness are still at an early stage. Although worldwide trends reveal the growing use of smart technologies in education, Iraq has been hindered by systemic barriers, such as archaic curricula, restricted access to technologies, and an unqualified teaching staff. Data were collected using a validated questionnaire on 122 public school teachers working in Baghdad with a descriptive-analytical methodology. The study divided challenges into five areas: infrastructure, teacher preparedness, administrative support, curricular adaptation and cultural resistanc

Expectation in poetry is  the ability of the poet to exceed the existence of the universe . It is the revealing of the hidden and the familiar. This feature of expecting is not related to the modern poetry only . It is a well - known feature that has long been assigned to old poetry like Al-Mutannabi  an Al-Mu`arri  who had their own unique ways of expecting and going beyond the current time  and touching the future and making it a reality. Based on their awareness ,mature thinking and talent , they had the ability of reading what is to come ,even if they were mere suppositions and tentative readings. As for the modern poetry , we have poets like Amal Dunqil , Adonis ,and Al-Sayyab whose poems became expectati

     The Beggar (1965) is a story of isolation and depression which is written by the Egyptian novelist Naguib Mahfouz who is considered the father of Arabic Literature in the modern era. Specifically, he refers in his great novel called The Beggar that the man unable to achieve psychological revival after Nasser’s revolution, the man sacrificed his own job and his family for a desire that increases his feelings of alienation and depression which leads him to an emotional outcry against the indifferent. The main aim of the study highlights the concept of existential dilemma as a philosophical problem and personality crisis by the protagonist of The Beggar novel, Omer Al-Hamzawi who had acc

 Synthetic polymers such as polyurethane are used widely in the field of biomedical applications such as implants or part of implant systems.

This paper focuses on the preparation of base polymer matrix composite materials by (Hand Lay-Up) method, and studying the effect of selected grain size (32, 53, 63, 75, and 90) µm of (Reenia) particles on some properties of the prepared composite.

Mechanical tests were used to evaluate the prepared system (Tensile, Compression, Impact, and Hardness) tests, and a physical test of (Water absorption %), and all tests were accomplished at room temperature.

Where results showed tensile test (maximum tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) high at small grain size while

The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors when creating the image of the main character of the story by D. Rubina "You and me under the peach clouds" - a pet, a dog named Kondraty. Through metaphorization, the image of the dog is filled by the author with purely human qualities, thus passing into the category of a full member of the family. The article is a continuation of the study of the work of D. I. Rubina.

The research aims to measure, assess and evaluate the efficiency of the directorates of Anbar Municipalities by using the Data Envelopment Analysis method (DEA). This is because the municipality sector is consider an important sector and has a direct contact with the citizen’s life. Provides essential services to citizens. The researcher used a case study method, and the sources of information collection based on data were monthly reports, the research population is represented by the Directorate of Anbar Municipalities, and the research sample consists of 7 municipalities which are different in terms of category and size of different types. The most important conclusion reached by the research i

This study aims at evaluating the performance of MA students in the College of Education for Women in using the digital transformation and identifying the significant difference in performance evaluation according to the variable of academic qualification (Master or PHD). In order to achieve the aim of the research the researcher prepared a questionnaire of 20 items, and this happens after the researcher's getting acquaintance of the literature of previous studies related to the variable of the research. The apparent validity of the items was examined by exposing them to 10 juries specialized in education, psychology and evaluation and measurement. The stability of the items was examined via two methods, the test-repetition and half-divisio