The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

The tourism industry has become, currently, an art, an industry and a science. It is also one of the components that make up touristic regions. Tourist attractions are no longer the exclusive visits of museums and archeological sites, but also involve other service facilities. It is, therefore, imperative that the authorities should become aware of the degradation of tourist resorts and prevent them from getting worse. Moreover, the authorities should take a set of decisions concerning the protection of the urban aspect with its historical, social, and environmental dimensions, as well as, adapting it to the modern requirements that can bring comfort to the citizens and tourists at physical and psychological levels.

Dylan Thomas (1914-1953) is a modern poet belongs to the apocalyptic movement of the 1940's.This movement is influenced by the doctrines and techniques of surrealism. Poetry for him should not be primarily concerned with man in society, but with the celebration of spiritual truth. It should bring to light the hidden causes, hence his personal interest is to strip darkness and explore the inward motives. To do this he uses a cluster of images: a constant building up and breaking down of images. His poetry depends on the romantic spontaneity, suggestiveness of the Symbolists and the the surrealists' mysterious liberation of the unconsciousness and the emotional involvement in the dynamics of life. In "Light Breaks

Dylan Thomas (1914-1953) is a modern poet belongs to the apocalyptic movement of the 1940's.This movement is influenced by the doctrines and techniques of surrealism.

              Poetry for him should not be primarily concerned with man in society, but with the celebration of spiritual truth. It should bring to light the hidden causes, hence  his personal interest is to strip darkness and explore the inward motives. To do this he uses a cluster of images: a constant building up and breaking down of images. His poetry depends on the romantic spontaneity, suggestiveness of the Symbolists and the the surrealists' mysterious liberation of the unconsciousness and

Abstract

That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.

The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result

Several million tons of solid waste are produced each year as a result of construction and demolition activities around the world, and brick waste is one of the most widely wastes. Recently, there has been growing number in studies that conducted on using of recycling brick waste (RBW) to produce environmentally friendly concrete. The use of brick waste (BW) as potential partial cement or aggregate replacement materials is summarized in this review where the performance is discussed in the form of the mechanical strength and properties that related to durability of  concrete. It was found that, because the pozzolanic activity of clay brick powder, it can be utilized as substitute for cement in replacement level up t

Several million tons of solid waste are produced each year as a result of construction and demolition activities around the world, and brick waste is one of the most widely wastes. Recently, there has been growing number in studies that conducted on using of recycling brick waste (RBW) to produce environmentally friendly concrete. The use of brick waste (BW) as potential partial cement or aggregate replacement materials is summarized in this review where the performance is discussed in the form of the mechanical strength and properties that related to durability of  concrete. It was found that, because the pozzolanic activity of clay brick powder, it can be utilized as substitute for cement in replacement level up to 10%. Whereas,

In this study a concentration of uranium was measured for twenty two samples of soil distributed in many regions (algolan, almoalmeen, alaskary and nasal streets) from Falluja Cityin AL-Anbar Governorate in addition to other region (alandlos street) as a back ground on the Falluja City that there is no military operations happened on it. The uranium concentrations in soil samples measured by using fission tracks registration in (PM-355) track detector that caused by the bombardment of (U) with thermal neutrons from (241Am-Be) neutron source that has flux of (5×103n cm-2 s-1). The concentrations values were calculated by a comparison with standard samples. The results shows that the uranium concentrations algolan street varies from(1.

The extraction of Cupressus sempervirens L. or cypress essential oil was studied in this paper. This cypress oil was extracted by using the hydro-distillation method, using a clevenger apparatus. Cupressus sempervirens L. leaves were collected from Hit city in Al-Anbar province – Iraq. The influences of three important parameters on the process of oil extraction; water which used as a solvent to the solid ratio (5:1 and 14:1 (ml solvent/g plant), temperature (30 to 100 °C) and processing time, were examined to obtain the best processing conditions to achieve the maximum yield of the essential oil. Also, the mathematical model was described to calculate the mass transfer coefficient. Therefore, the best conditions, that were obtained in