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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 21 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectral and Dyeing Performance Studies of 4-(2-Aminmo-5-nitro-phenylazo)-1,5-dimethyl-2-phenyl-1,2-dihydro-pyrazol-3-one Complexes with Some Metal Ions
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The ligand 4-(2-aminmo-5-nitro-phenylazo)-1,5-dimethyl-2-phenyl-1,2-dihydro-pyrazol-3-one derived from 4-aminoantipyrine and 4-nitroaniline was synthesized. The synthesized ligand was characterized by 1HNMR, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra and (C.H.N) analysis. Complexes of (YIII and LaIII ) with the ligand were prepared in aqueous ethanol with a 1:2 M:L ratio and at optimum pH. The prepared complexes were characterized by using flame atomic absorption, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra,(C.H.N) analysis and conductivity measurement. The stoichiometry of complexes was studied by the mole ratio and job methods. A concentration range (1×10-4 - 3×10-4 M) obeyed Beer's law, the complex solutions show high values of molar absorption. On the basis of physicochemical

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Levels of Glucose-6-phosphate Dehydrogenase in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus patients with Nephropathy and Cardiovascular disease complication: Perry H. Saifullah|Saad M. Nida|Israa B. Raoof
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The aim of this study is to evaluate oxidative stress in diabetes mellitus (DM) Type1 by the measurement of Glucose-6-phosphate Dehydrogenase (G-6-PD), an enzyme expressed in human RBCs, is important in the generation of reduced glutathione which is the key product in oxidative stress controls. The Study was carried on 80 samples of blood and serum of National Diabetes Center (NDC). The study groups under fasting conditions and they divided as:20 samples of diabetes mellitus patients without complications and 20 samples of diabetes mellitus with cardiovascular (CV) complications and 20 samples of diabetes mellitus with Nephropathy (Neph) complications compared with 20 control group with average age (13-67) years.. The results sh

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2023
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
Detection of Multiple Sclerosis Lesions in Supra- and Infra-Tentorial Anatomical Regions by Double Inversion Recovery, Flair, and T2 MRI Sequences: A Comparative Study in Iraqi Patients
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Background: In young adults, multiple sclerosis is a prevalent chronic inflammatory demyelinating condition. It is characterized by white matter affection, but many individuals also have significant gray matter involvement. A double-inversion recovery pulse (DIR) pattern was recently proposed to improve the visibility of multiple sclerosis lesions. Objective: To find out how well a DIR sequence, FLAIR, and T2-weighted pulse sequences can find MS lesions in the supratentorial and infratentorial regions. Methods: A total of 37 patients with established diagnoses of multiple sclerosis were included in this cross-sectional study. Brain MRI was done using double inversion recovery, T2, and FLAIR sequences. The number of lesions was count

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
بررسیِ حرکت¬شناختیِ افعالِ متنِ "ما زِ بالاییم و بالا می رویم" مولانا Kinetic Study of Mewlana Jalaluddin Rumi's "Mazi Balaeem we Bala Mi Roeem" Text's Verbs
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چکیده­ی بحث

       به نظر می­آید که عالم هستی ، بر مسأله­ی « حرکت» استوار دارد ، و روح ، همیشه دنبال دگرگونی و تکامل و برتری می­گردد. حرکت ، همه­ی چیزها در عالم إمکان را  در بر می­گیرد. حرکت در بنیادهای فکر مولانا جای مهمی دارد .اشعار مولانا مقدار زیادی از پویایی و حرکت برخوردارست، و از آنجایی که فعل ، عنصر تکانبخش جمله ، و کانون دلالت است ، ترجیح دادیم - علاوه بر دیگر عنا

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Enzyme (PDE-5) Inhibitors and Analogues as Adulterants in Selected Herbal Products using Gas Chromatography–Electron Impact-Mass Spectrometer (GC-EI-MS)
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       Sildenafil, tadalafil, and vardenafil are phosphodiesterase type 5 enzyme (PDE-5) inhibitors used for the treatment of male erectile dysfunction. This present study aims to investigate 55 herbal products indicated for men’s sexual health from the Malaysian market for adulteration of PDE-5 inhibitors and analogues. The screening and identification of 20 PDE-5 inhibitors and analogues in herbal products of various forms (powder, capsules, tablets, and pastels) were conducted using gas chromatography–electron impact-mass spectrometer (GC-EI-MS). The analysis has shown that 19 herbal products were adulterated with PDE-5 inhibitors and analogues. Unique ion fragmentations and the presence of molecular

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Dalton Transactions
Mangiferin functionalized radioactive gold nanoparticles (MGF-<sup>198</sup>AuNPs) in prostate tumor therapy: green nanotechnology for production, in vivo tumor retention and evaluation of therapeutic efficacy
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We report here an innovative feature of green nanotechnology-focused work showing that mangiferin—a glucose functionalized xanthonoid, found in abundance in mango peels—serves dual roles of chemical reduction and in situ encapsulation, to produce gold nanoparticles with optimum in vivo stability and tumor specific characteristics. The interaction of mangiferin with a Au-198 gold precursor affords MGF-198AuNPs as the beta emissions of Au-198 provide unique advantages for tumor therapy while gamma rays are used for the quantitative estimation of gold within the tumors and various organs. The laminin receptor specificity of mangiferin affords specific accumulation of therapeutic payloads of this new therapeutic agent within prostate tumors

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 03 2022
Journal Name
Archives Of Rheumatology
Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha promoter region gene polymorphism at positions -308G/A, -857C/T, and -863C/A with etanercept response in Iraqi rheumatoid arthritis patients
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Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the association between polymorphisms in the promoter region of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) gene at locations -308G/A, -857C/T, and -863C/A with the tendency of being non-responder to etanercept.

Patients and methods: Between October 2020 and August 2021, a total of 80 patients (10 males, 70 females; mean age: 50 years; range, 30 to 72 years) with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) receiving etanercept for at least six months were included. The patients were divided into two groups responders and non-responders, based on their response after six months of continuous treatment. Following polymerase chain reac

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 20 2025
Journal Name
Bmc Musculoskeletal Disorders
Effects of acute static stretching and dynamic warm-up protocols on shoulder function in young adult male athletes with shoulder impingement syndrome: a randomized controlled crossover trial
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Developing Bulk Arrival Queuing Models with Constant Batch Policy Under Uncertainty Data Using (0-1) Variables
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This paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Opcion
Gender differences in motivation toward learning EFL skills among international students
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This paper aims to examine the effects of the gender differences on learners‟ motivation in learning the four skills of English as a foreign language as well as to identify the proper types of motivation for males and females via a qualitative semi-structured interview. The findings showed that all the males have extrinsic motivation in all four skills. On the other hand, females differ among themselves in their motivation. In conclusion, it is also the teachers‟ responsibility to guide and direct their learners to achieve better outcomes in learning the four EFL skills.

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