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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2024
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis, Structure and Biological Activity Studies of New Metal Ion Complexes Based on 3-[(3-Hydroxynaphthalene-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one
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In the present study, a novel ligand (L) made of 2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde and 3-hydrazone-1,3-dihydro-indole-2-one(3-[(3-hydroxynaphthalen-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one). The ligand was characterized by FTIR, UV-vis, mass, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and CHN elemental analysis. New complexes of this ligand were created by treating methanol and a drop of DMF solution of the produced ligand with the hydrated metal salts of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) in a molar ratio of 2:1 (L:M). As a result, complexes have been emerged and identified FTIR, UV-vis, C.H.N., chloride-containing, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, and atomic absorption. The characterization result for each complex indicated complexes wi

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الإضاءة في مسرح الطفل تصميم مفترض لمسرحية (الحاسوب)
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Developed technologies and complementary means for viewing theater through the ages, and they affected would improve and get better. Valsinogravea appeared to express a description and identification of existing in the theatrical space of lighting and decorative structure architecture, and the lighting of the elements that have contributed since ancient times in the process of the show, and played a significant role in strengthening the relationship between the recipient and actor and presentation theater as a whole scenes, working to broadcast a dramatic speech theatrical holds ideas and content and symbols and semantics affect the spectator of different age, particularly the child viewer, that little spectator who represent the

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Publication Date
Thu May 04 2023
Journal Name
НАУЧНЫЙ ФОРУМ
Иноязычные заимствования в современном русском языке
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Архив всех научных статей сборников конференций и журналов по направлению Филология.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 13 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Social Sciences & Humanities
Subject Review: Blogs as Learning Tools in EFL Classrooms
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Blogs have emerged as a powerful technology tool for English as a Foreign Language (EFL) classrooms. This literature review aims to provide an overview of the use of blogs as learning tools in EFL classrooms. The study examines the benefits and challenges of using blogs for language learning and the different types of blogs that can be used for language learning. It provides suggestions for teachers interested in using blogs as learning tools in their EFL classrooms. The findings suggest that blogs are a valuable and effective tool for language learning, particularly in promoting collaboration, communication, and motivation.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Arabic language and tongue violence in Arab satellite channels
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This study aimed at identifying the effect of violence on speech disorders concerning Arab Broadcasting . Language is a pot of thought and a mirror of human civilization and communication tool, but the Arabic language is suffering a lot of extraneous terms them, particularly through the media. This study attempts to answer the following question: Is the phenomenon of linguistic duality in the Media reflected negatively on the rules of the classical language? The study deals with the explanation and interpretation of the phenomenon that has become slang exist in our Media More. And the study suggests re- consideration of the value in the Media ,hence the problem will be resolved.   

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Deception in Amber Heard and Johnny Depp’s Trials
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Deception is defined as a linguistic and non-linguistic behavior that is used in interaction in order to make the addressees believe what is believed to be false or lack evidence. McCornack (1992) classifies deception into four manipulative strategies (i.e., fabrication, distortion, equivocation and concealment), other scholars argue that deception encompasses the strategies of “fabrication (outright lying), equivocation (being vague and ambiguous), or concealment (with holding relevant information) Thus, the present study investigates the deception strategies and motives that are used by Johnny Depp and Amber Heard during their defamation trials. Qualitative and quantitative methods are employed when analyzing the data in question. Th

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
طرائق جديدة لحل مشاكل البرمجة الخطية الضبابية المتماثلة
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Several authors have used ranking function for solving linear programming problem. In This paper is proposed two ranking function for solving fuzzy linear programming and compare these two approach with trapezoidal fuzzy number .The proposed approach is very easy to understand and it can applicable, also the data were chosen from general company distribution of dairy (Canon company) was proposed test approach and compare; This paper prove that the second proposed approach is better to give the results and satisfy the minimal cost using Q.M. Software

 

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Publication Date
Thu May 05 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Mixed-1,10-phenanthroline with Mn(II), Cu(II),Co(II), Hg(II) and Ni(II) complexes Synthesis, Antimicrobial Activity and Spectroscopic Characterization of Binuclear Schiff Base
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The M(II) complexes [M2 (phen)2 (L)(H2O)2Cl2 ] in (2:1:2 (M:L:phen) molar ratio, (where M(II) =Mn(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Ni(II) and Hg(II), phen = 1,10-phenanthroline; L = 2,2'-(1Z,1'Z)-(biphenyl-4,4'-diylbis(azan-1-yl-1-ylidene))bis(methan-1-yl-1- ylidene)diphenol] were synthesized. The mixed complexes have been prepared and characterized using 1H and13C NMR, UV/Visible, FTIR spectra methods and elemental microanalysis, as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. The metal complexes were tested in vitro against three types of pathogenic bacteria microorganisms: Staphylococcus aurous, Escherichia coli, Bacillussubtilis and Pseudomonasaeroginosa to assess their antimicrobial properties. From this study shows that all the

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 27 2025
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Chemical Society Of Ethiopia
Synthesis, characterization, dyeing performance, and microbial evaluation of 5-((2,4-dibromo-6-((cyclohexyl(methyl)amino) methyl)phenyl)diazenyl)quinolin-8-ol complexes with some metallic ions
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5-((2,4-dibromo-6-((cyclohexyl(methyl)amino)methyl)phenyl)diazenyl)quinolin-8-ol azo ligand (L) has been synthesized through the reaction of diazonium salt for 2,4-dibromo-6-((cyclohexyl(methyl)amino)methyl)aniline with 8-hydroxyquinoline. The azo ligand (L) was characterized utilizing spectroscopic techniques, including FTIR, UV-Vis, 1H and 13C NMR, as well as mass spectrometry and micro-elemental analysis (C.H.N). Metal complexes containing Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) were synthesized and analyzed through mass spectrometry, flame atomic absorption, elemental analysis (C.H.N), infrared and UV-Vis spectroscopy, along with measurements of conductivity and magnetic properties. The experimental findings suggested that all met

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2017
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Evaluation of Crestal Bone Loss and Alkaline Phosphatase Level in Saliva According To Different Flap Designs in Single-Tooth Dental Implant Surgery (A Clinical Comparative Study)
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