The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
Abstract
The research aims to examine the relationship between psychological flow, psychological well-being, and self-management among a sample of fine artists in the Makkah region and its governorates. The research also aims to examine the mean group differences in psychological flow, psychological well-being, and self-management due to demographic variables (sex and years of practicing arts). The sample consists of (110) male and female fine artists. The descriptive correlational approach was performed to collect the data by using the psychological flow scale developed by Payne et al (2011), which was translated by the researcher, the Oxford happiness questionnaire developed by Hills and Argyle (2002), it has t
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Arzı Kanber/Kamber hikayesi Anadolu, Rumeli, Azerbaycan, Türkmenistan ve Irak gibi Türk dünyasının birçok yerinde birden fazla varyantı bulunan, çok sevilen ve yaygın olarak anlatılan aşk ve dramatik maceralı bir halk hikayesidir. Türk halk hikayelerinin en popüler olanlarından biri sayılan Arzı Kanber/Kamber hikayesi, Anadolu'nun birçok yöresinde bilinmesine rağmen Irak Türkmenleri arasında daha çok sevildiği ve yaygın olarak anlatıldığı tespit edilen birden fazla varyantından da görülebilir. Irak Türkmenleri arasında günümüze kadar hikayenin iki varyantı tespit edilmi
... Show MoreThis paper investigates the performance evaluation of two state feedback controllers, Pole Placement (PP) and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). The two controllers are designed for a Mass-Spring-Damper (MSD) system found in numerous applications to stabilize the MSD system performance and minimize the position tracking error of the system output. The state space model of the MSD system is first developed. Then, two meta-heuristic optimizations, Simulated Annealing (SA) optimization and Ant Colony (AC) optimization are utilized to optimize feedback gains matrix K of the PP and the weighting matrices Q and R of the LQR to make the MSD system reach stabilization and reduce the oscillation of the response. The Matlab softwar
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to determine the ability of water treatment system (Vortisand) to reduce some chemical and physical properties for tigris river raw water, It consisted of turbidity, electrical conductivity, pH, total hardness, calcium Hardness as well as temperature in order to determine the unit`s efficiency for reducing their concentration as compared to those in the water produced by some classical potable water projects (Dora and Wathba) in Baghdad. Samples were collected during the cold months (December 2016 and January 2017) and during the hot months (May and June 2017). The results showed that this system has the ability to reduce some properties such as turbidity, the values were 215NTU in raw water and decreased to NTU
... Show MoreAll-optical canonical logic units at 40 Gb/s using bidirectional four-wave mixing (FWM) in highly nonlinear fiber are proposed and experimentally demonstrated. Clear temporal waveforms and correct pattern streams are successfully observed in the experiment. This scheme can reduce the amount of nonlinear devices and enlarge the computing capacity compared with general ones. The numerical simulations are made to analyze the relationship between the FWM efficiency and the position of two interactional signals. © 2015 Chinese Laser Press
Anew Schiff base (NaHL) has been prepared from the reaction between the salt of amino acid glycine with 2-hydroxy naphthaldehyde. By tridentate Schiff base of (ONO), donors were characterized by using U.V and spectrophotometer techniques. Complexes of Co(II) Ni(II) Cu(II) and Zn(II) ion with the ligand have been prepared, these complexes were identified by infrared, electronic spectral data, elemental analysis, magnetic moments, and molar conductivity measurements. It is concluded from the elemental analysis that all the complexes have (1:2) [metal:ligand] molar ratios, octahedral, with the exception to Zn(II) complex which have (1:1)[metal:ligand] molar ratio.
... Show MoreA new Schiff base ligand [L] [3-methyl-9,10 phenyl -6,7 dihydro-5,8 –dioxo-1,2 diazo –cyclo dodecu 2,11-diene ,4-one ] and its complexes with (Co(II), Ni(II), Cu (II), Zn(II) and Cd(II)) were synthesis.This ligand was prepared in three steps, in the first step a solution of salicyladehyed in methanol reacted under refluxed with hydrazine monohydrate to give an (intermediate compound 1) which reacted in the second step with sodium pyruvate to give an (intermediate compound 2) which gave the ligand [L] in the three step when it reacted with 1,2- dichloro ethane.The complexes were synthesized by direct reaction of the corresponding metal chloride with the ligand. The ligand and complexes were characterized by spectroscopic methods [IR, UV-
... Show MoreBackground: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an adult leukemia characterized by rapid proliferation of undifferentiated myeloid precursors, leading to bone marrow (BM) failure and impaired erythropoiesis. The p53 tumor suppressor protein regulates cell division and inhibits tumor development by preventing cell proliferation of altered or damaged DNA. It orchestrates various cellular reactions, including cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, and antioxidant properties. Objectives: To investigate the relationship of P53 serum level with hematological findings, remission, and survival status in de novo AML patients. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study that enrolled 63 newly diagnosed de novo AML patients, and 15 sex- and age-matched healt
... Show MoreRKRAS L. K. Abdul Karem, F. H. Ganim, Biochemical and Cellular Archives, 2018 - Cited by 2