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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 07 2015
Journal Name
European Chemical Bulletin
DETERMINATION OF CANCER ANTIGEN CA15-3 AND ALPHA FETO PROTEIN (AFP) LEVELS AS TUMOR MARKER IN PATIENTS WITH BREAST AND PROSTATE CANCER
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European Chemical Bulletin (ISSN 2063-5346) is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes original research papers, short communications, and review articles in all areas of chemistry. European Chemical Bulletin has eight sections, namely

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Our Dermatology Online
Topical therapy of molluscum contagiosum as a comparative therapeutic study using 15% phenol in lactic acid, 5% tincture iodine and pricking alone
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KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, GA Ibrahim, AS Al-Husseiny, Our Dermatology Online, 2016 - Cited by 3

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
History Of Medicine
A comparative study of integrin- linked kinase 1 and anti-smith antibody as diagnostic biomarkers in Iraqi patients with systemic lupus erythematosus
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Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is the prototypic multisystem autoimmune disorder with a broad spectrum of clinical presentations encompassing almost all organs and tissues. Aimes of study determination of integrin- linked kinase 1(ILK-1) and anti-smith antibody(ASAB) levels in serum of Iraqi patients with systemic lupus erythematosus, in addition, that ILK-1 may be as a diagnostic marker of SLE disease, and study the effect of systemic lupus erythematosus on renal function in these patients. This study included 100 females’ patients with systemic lupus erythematosus attending to the Rheumatology Unit in Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Medical City, (Baghdad), in addition to 30 healthy females as controller group were chosen without any chr

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 23 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Inorganic And Organometallic Polymers And Materials
Quaternary Biocomposite of Chitosan-Polyvinyl Alcohol/Food Grade Algae/ Montmorillonite Clay for Cationic Methyl Violet 2B Dye Removal: Optimization and Desirability Functions
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Physical Chemistry Research
Thermophysical Study of Ethylene Glycol + H<inf>2</inf>O and Ethylene Glycol + (DMF/H<inf>2</inf>O) at 298.15 K
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n this research, some thermophysical properties of ethylene glycol with water (H2O) and two solvent mixtures dimethylformamide/ water (DMF + H2O) were studied. The densities (ρ) and viscosities (η) of ethylene glycol in water and a mixed solvent dimethylformamide (DMF + H2O) were determined at 298.15 K, t and a range of concentrations from 0.1 to1.0 molar. The ρ and η values were subsequently used to calculate the thermodynamics of mixing including the apparent molar volume (ϕv), partial molar volume (ϕvo) at infinite dilution. The solute-solute interaction is presented by Sv results from the equation ∅_v=ϕ_v^o+S_v √m. The values of viscosity (B) coefficients and Falkenhagen coefficient(A) of the Jone-Dole equation and Gibbs free

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Enhanced Physical Absorption Properties of ZnO Nanorods by Electrostatic Self-Assembly with Reduced Graphene Oxide and Decorated with Silver and Copper Nanoparticles
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The preparation and characterization of innovative nanocomposites based on zinc oxide nanorods (ZNR) encapsulated by graphene (Gr) nanosheets and decorated with silver (Ag), and cupper (Cu) nanoparticles (NP) were studied. The prepared nanocomposites (ZNR@Gr/Cu-Ag) were examined by different techniques including Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM), Transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Atomic force microscopy (AFM), UV-Vis spectrophotometer and fluorescence spectroscopy. The results showed that the ZNR has been good cover by five layers of graphene and decorated with Ag and Cu NPs with particles size of about 10-15 nm. The ZNR@Gr/Cu-Ag nanocomposites exhibit high absorption behavior in ultraviolet (UV) region of sp

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Mechanical Engineering
Development and Validation of a Free Piston Engine Linear Generator Simulation Model Including Cycle-To-Cycle Variation and Ignition Timing Sub-Models
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Publication Date
Sun May 03 2015
Journal Name
Lasers In Medical Science
Investigations of radicular dentin permeability and ultrastructural changes after irradiation with Er,Cr:YSGG laser and dual wavelength (2780 and 940 nm) laser
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 13 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Gingival health condition and salivary physical properties among a group of patients with intermaxillary fixation in tow times intervals (Follow up study)
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ABSTRACT Background: One of the methods used in the treatment of maxillofacial fracture is intermaxillary fixation(IMF), the most common type is the Erich arch bar with interdental wiring. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of intermaxillary fixation on gingival health condition among a group of patients with facial fracture in relation to salivary physical properties. Materials and methods: Thirty patients with an age range of (17-37) years old with facial fractures and indicated for IMF. Plaque index and gingival index (Loe, 1967) were used to assess both of them before application and after removal of IMF. Unstimulated saliva sample collection was carried out under standardized conditions according to Navazesh and Kum

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
P J M H S
Synthesis and Spectro Scopic Study of Some Metal Transition Amino Organic Compounds with N-(2-OXO-1,2-Dihydropyrimidin-4- Ylcarbamothioyl) Acetamide (DPA)
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A New ligand, N-(2-oxo-1,2- Dihydropyrimidin-4- ylcarbamothioyl) Acetamide (DPA) was prepared by reaction of iso thiosyanate derivative with Cytosine. The ligand has been characterized through elemental analysis, H1 NMR, C13NMR, FT-IR, and UV Visible spectra, such ligand’s transition metal complexes have been characterized through conductivity measurement, FT-IR, UV Visible spectra and magnetic susceptibility, all the complexes of this ligand are solid crystal and molar ratio (2:1) (ligand: metal). The form of molecular for these complexes octa hedral. The general formula [M(DPA)2Cl2], where M+2 = (Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg).