Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Abstract

                  The study aimed to prepare a practical guide for procedures for auditing the strategies of municipal institutions in achieving sustainable development by adopting the idea of ​​the audit matrix through which a classified report is prepared according to the dimensions of sustainable development, by preparing a specialized audit program for the purpose of auditing strategies for achieving sustainable development and emptying the results of the application of each of the paragraphs The program in the audit matrix that was prepared for the purpose of determining the impact of each observation and linkin

In petroleum reservoir engineering, history matching refers to the calibration process in which a reservoir simulation model is validated through matching simulation outputs with the measurement of observed data. A traditional history matching technique is performed manually by engineering in which the most uncertain observed parameters are changed until a satisfactory match is obtained between the generated model and historical information. This study focuses on step by step and trial and error history matching of the Mishrif reservoir to constrain the appropriate simulated model. Up to 1 January 2021, Buzurgan Oilfield, which has eighty-five producers and sixteen injectors and has been under production for 45 years when it started

This study is marked by: The ignorant poem and body language
 Its main objective is to reveal the manifestations of this language in the text mentioned, and accordingly, the sieve poem has been read semantic (semantic) and hermeneutic, revealing the poet's ability to employ symbols and signals (body language) in the poem chosen for this purpose; The existence of such language in pre-Islamic poetry. After a long reflection and reading, the signs and symbols of the physical movement of the body, and its feminine and aesthetic manifestations were identified, and this was achieved through the use of modern critical methodologies that directly affect this language. The study consisted of an introduction and three topics, followed by t

The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

This study was carried out to investigate the effects of magnetized water on accumulated infiltration depth. A test rig was designed and constructed for this purpose was installed at the water tests laboratory of the Department of Water Resources Engineering at the University of  aghdad. The investigation was carried out by using two types of soil, different flow velocities throughout magnetizing device and different configuration of magnets over and under the water passage of the magnetizing device. The soils that were used in the experiments are clayey and sandy soils.  Six different flow velocities throughout magnetizing device ranged between 0.29 to 1.19 cm/s and ten configurations of arranging the magnets over and under th

Anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS) are man-made derivatives of the male sex hormone testosterone, originally designed for therapeutic uses to provide higher anabolic potency with lower androgenic effects. Increasing numbers of young athletes are using these agents illicitly to enhance physical fitness, appearance, and performance despite their numerous side effects and worldwide banning.  Today, their use remains one of the main health problems in sports because of their availability and low price.  The present study focuses on investigating the adverse effects of anabolic androgenic steroid abuse on sex hormones, liver and renal function tests, fasting glucose levels and lipid metabolism in Iraqi male recreational bodybuilders