It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-series vehicles, leading to better results.
For the duration of the last few many years many improvement in computer technology, software program programming and application production had been followed with the aid of diverse engineering disciplines. Those trends are on the whole focusing on synthetic intelligence strategies. Therefore, a number of definitions are supplied, which recognition at the concept of artificial intelligence from exclusive viewpoints. This paper shows current applications of artificial intelligence (AI) that facilitate cost management in civil engineering tasks. An evaluation of the artificial intelligence in its precise partial branches is supplied. These branches or strategies contributed to the creation of a sizable group of fashions s
... Show MoreThe reason behind choosing this topic " internal marketing (IM) of human resource management (HRM)" is to highlight the advantages of using IM in the organization framework. The problem of the research paper lies in not paying enough attention to employees genuine needs as they interact with each other in the sake of organization prosper. This research paper can be used as indictor to expose the weaknesses that the organization encounters daily. The current research paper attempts at examining the possibility of developing philosophy of internal marketing of human resources and its most practices, empowering staff, training courses, motivations and recognitions, and within departments communication, in order to reach targeted res
... Show MoreProfessional learning societies (PLS) are a systematic method for improving teaching and learning performance through designing and building professional learning societies. This leads to overcoming a culture of isolation and fragmenting the work of educational supervisors. Many studies show that constructing and developing strong professional learning societies - focused on improving education, curriculum and evaluation will lead to increased cooperation and participation of educational supervisors and teachers, as well as increases the application of effective educational practices in the classroom.
The roles of the educational supervisor to ensure the best and optimal implementation and activation of professional learning soci
... Show MoreBegan the process of re-engineering processes in the private sector as a way to assist organizations in re-thinking how to run the business in order to improve production processes and reduce operational cost, to get to compete on a global level. That was a major restructuring by further evolution in the use of technology to support innovative operations.
Entered the technology in all areas of life and different regulations, This led to use as a change in all aspects The companies achieved success and progress today through the use of resources so as to ensure the wishes of the customers and their needs, and the requirements of the market primarily, Which is reflected on the basis of building strate
... Show MoreThe body of the actor and its expressive significance is an essential topic in studying acting . it is not only confined to the study of soul and body from philosophical aesthetic perspective , but also to study the conception and mechanism of such a dichotomy followed by theatre directors and theorists , who are highly concerned with the creativity of actors . The researchers believe that such a study would be of benefit for actors as well as others working in theatre .
The study falls into two sections . the first deals with the phi
... Show MoreCumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi | Volume: 48 Issue: 2
The Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MoreThis research deals with the foreign policy and the Russian trends towards Iraqafter the year 2000 AD, the international variables that affect that bilateralrelationship and the importance of the position and weight of Iraq in the MiddleEast and the attempt to include Iraq in the international organizations and blocsled by China and the Russian Federation such as the Shanghai CooperationOrganization, and joining the Chinese Belt and Road project to serve interests TheIraqi economy, and an attempt to extend its influence through security alliances inthe region in general, and Iraq in particular, as the quadrilateral center of the waron terrorism in which Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria participated, which strengthensbilateral relations between
... Show MoreThe research in the variables of the political process and government stability tried to show the impact of the political process on political stability first, and then on government stability second, given that the political process that was established in 2005 was aimed at achieving legitimacy, and its most prominent tools are elections, leading to achieving political stability, including government stability. The issue of governmental stability is one of the important issues in Iraq, but it has not been achieved, as a result of several factors, including problems in political action, as the political process has not succeeded in leading Iraq to stability.
Abstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
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