The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival
... Show MoreCuring of concrete is the maintenance of a satisfactory moisture content and temperature for a
period of time immediately following placing so the desired properties are developed. Accelerated
curing is advantages where early strength gain in concrete is important. The expose of concrete
specimens to the accelerated curing conditions which permit the specimens to develop a significant
portion of their ultimate strength within a period of time (1-2 days), depends on the method of the
curing cycle.Three accelerated curing test methods are adopted in this study. These are warm water,
autogenous and proposed test methods. The results of this study has shown good correlation
between the accelerated strength especially for
The aim of this research is to explore the time and space distribution of traffic volume demand and investigate its vehicle compositions. The four selected links presented the activity of transportation facilities and different congestion points according to directions. The study area belongs to Al-Rusafa sector in Baghdad city that exhibited higher rate of traffic congestions of working days at peak morning and evening periods due to the different mixed land uses. The obtained results showed that Link (1) from Medical city intersection to Sarafiya intersection, demonstrated the highest traffic volume in both peak time periods morning AM and afternoon PM where the demand exceeds the capacity along the link corridor. Also, higher values f
... Show MoreAt the end of 2019, a new form of Coronavirus (later dubbed COVID-19) emerged in China and quickly spread to other regions of the globe. Despite the virus’s unique and unknown characteristics, it is a widely distributed infectious illness. Finding the geographical distribution of the virus transmission is therefore critical for epidemiologists and governments in order to respond to the illness epidemic rapidly and effectively. Understanding the dynamics of COVID-19’s spatial distribution can help to understand the pandemic’s scope and effects, as well as decision-making, planning, and community action aimed at preventing transmission. The main focus of this study is to investigate the geographic patterns of COVID-19 disseminat
... Show MoreIraq is highly dependent on international markets to provide food for its residents. As imported food prices are highly dependent on crude oil prices in global markets, any shock in oil prices will have an impact on food consumption in the country. As a result, it is essential to study the demand for imported food at every time period. To the best of our knowledge as researchers, as not even a single study is available in the literature, this paper is considered the first to study the demand for imported food groups in Iraq. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to estimate demand elasticities for several imported food categories in Iraq. This study uses an Almost Ideal Demand System model to analyze the demand for imported f
... Show MoreInvestment Bases directly and closely to an environment characterized by political, social and economic stability, and through a range of policies and institutions and economic laws that affect investor confidence and convince him directing investments to country without the other, where inter conditions and circumstances affecting the trends of capital and settle in, and political situation of the country and what is characterized of stability or disorder as well as economic conditions that are affected by what is distinguishes the country from geographic and demographic characteristics are reflected on availability of production elements and country's infrastructure.
... Show MoreThis study aims to preparation a standards code for sustainability requirements to contribute in a better understanding to the concept of sustainability assessment systems in the dimensions of Iraqi projects in general and in the high-rise building. Iraq is one of the developing countries that faced significant challenges in sustainability aspects environmental, economic and social, it became necessary to develop an effective sustainability building assessment system in respect of the local context in Iraq. This study presented a proposal for a system of assessing the sustainability requirements of Iraqi high rise buildings (ISHTAR), which has been developed through several integrated
Recently, women's rape has been a pervasive problem in the Iraqi society. Thus, it has become necessary to consider the role of language and its influence on the common beliefs and opinions about rape in the Iraqi society. Thus, taking into consideration the critical role of language and its impact on the perception of human reality and the social development based on people's beliefs and principles of life has become highly indispensable. Therefore. The aim of this article is to address this problem critically from legislation and social norms in NGOs' reports (2015; 2019) with reference to some provisions from the Iraqi Panel Code (1969; 2010). Therefore, the researchers examine the discursive strategies and ideological viewpoints in t
... Show MoreThe injection of Low Salinity Water (LSWI) as an Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) method has recently attracted a lot of attention. Extensive research has been conducted to investigate and identify the positive effects of LSWI on oil recovery. In order to demonstrate the impact of introducing low salinity water into a reservoir, simulations on the ECLIPSE 100 simulator are being done in this work. To simulate an actual reservoir, an easy static model was made. In order to replicate the effects of injecting low salinity water and normal salinity, or seawater, the reservoir is three-phase with oil, gas, and water. It has one injector and one producer. Five cases were suggested to investigate the effect of low salinity water injection with differen
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