The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This study aimed to analyze and measure the relationship between oil revenues and financial sustainability in Iraq, the study used the stylistic approach inductive and deductive approach. Accompanied by the use of quantitative and analytical style, which was based on two variables oil revenues and net general budget on annual data covered the period (1990-2013). Among the most important findings of the study contain the time-series variables study on the root of the unit and is not stable in the general level, and become stable after the use of mathematical processors to gain access to a stable by taking the first difference of natural Ogartm of the series. The way (Johnson) to a long-term relationship between oil revenues and ne
... Show MoreSurvival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other
... Show MoreHydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined.
There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements.
The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more a
Hydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined. There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements. The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more accurate t
... Show MoreThe research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide practical evidence that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial and that includes all of the spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. The spatial analysis had been applied to Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHS
... Show MoreTheresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
... Show MoreThis paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
... Show MoreThis research includes structure interpretation of the Yamama Formation (Lower Cretaceous) and the Naokelekan Formation (Jurassic) using 2D seismic reflection data of the Tuba oil field region, Basrah, southern Iraq. The two reflectors (Yamama and Naokelekan) were defined and picked as peak and tough depending on the 2D seismic reflection interpretation process, based on the synthetic seismogram and well log data. In order to obtain structural settings, these horizons were followed over all the regions. Two-way travel-time maps, depth maps, and velocity maps have been produced for top Yamama and top Naokelekan formations. The study concluded that certain longitudinal enclosures reflect anticlines in the east and west of the study ar
... Show MoreNowadays, people's expression on the Internet is no longer limited to text, especially with the rise of the short video boom, leading to the emergence of a large number of modal data such as text, pictures, audio, and video. Compared to single mode data ,the multi-modal data always contains massive information. The mining process of multi-modal information can help computers to better understand human emotional characteristics. However, because the multi-modal data show obvious dynamic time series features, it is necessary to solve the dynamic correlation problem within a single mode and between different modes in the same application scene during the fusion process. To solve this problem, in this paper, a feature extraction framework of
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