The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In 2010, the tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) was reported for the first time in Iraq. The larvae can feed on all parts of tomato plants and can damage all the growth stages. The main host plant is tomato, Lycopersicon esculentum, but it can also attack other plants in Solanaceae family. In this study it was found attacking alfalfa plants, Medicago sativa in Baghdad Province. This finding reveals that alfalfa also serves as a host plant for T. absoluta in Iraq.
The significance of the research conducted in northern Iraq comes despite the expansion of afforestation projects; yet, the suffering of the forests has increased due to their lack of scientific study, unpredictability of the climate, and adverse effects on the spread and growth of plant species Therefore, the goal of the study is to understand the effects of afforestation through a statistical analysis of plant diversity in northern Iraq and its distinctivenessThe analysis revealed that natural groupings had improved qualitatively more than other groups, particularly some dwindling species that are able to compete and occupy new areas. drought-prone vegetation, vegetation, and climat
Mishrif Formation is the main reservoir in Amara Oil Field. It is divided into three units (MA, TZ1, and MB12). Geological model is important to build reservoir model that was built by Petrel -2009. FZI method was used to determine relationship between porosity and permeability for core data and permeability values for the uncored interval for Mishrif formation. A reservoir simulation model was adopted in this study using Eclipse 100. In this model, production history matching executed by production data for (AM1, AM4) wells since 2001 to 2015. Four different prediction cases have been suggested in the future performance of Mishrif reservoir for ten years extending from June 2015 to June 2025. The comparison has been mad
... Show MoreData scarcity is a major challenge when training deep learning (DL) models. DL demands a large amount of data to achieve exceptional performance. Unfortunately, many applications have small or inadequate data to train DL frameworks. Usually, manual labeling is needed to provide labeled data, which typically involves human annotators with a vast background of knowledge. This annotation process is costly, time-consuming, and error-prone. Usually, every DL framework is fed by a significant amount of labeled data to automatically learn representations. Ultimately, a larger amount of data would generate a better DL model and its performance is also application dependent. This issue is the main barrier for
Were arranged this study on two sections, which included first section comparison between markets proposed through the use of transport models and the use of the program QSB for less costs , dependant the optimal solution to chose the suggested market to locate new market that achieve lower costs in the transport of goods from factories (ALRasheed ,ALAmeen , AlMaamun ) to points of sale, but the second part has included comparison of all methods of transport (The least cost method ,Vogels method , Results Approximations method , Total method) depending on the agenda of transport, which includes the market proposed selected from the first section and choose the way in which check the solution first best suited in terms
... Show MoreThis study examines experimentally the performance of a horizontal triple concentric tube heat exchanger TCTHE made of copper metal using water as cooling fluid and oil-40 as hot fluid. Hot fluid enters the inner annular tube of the TCTHE in a direction at a temperature of 50, 60 and 70 oC and a flow rate of 20 l/hr. On the other hand, the cooling fluid enters the inner tube and the outer annular tube in the reverse direction (counter current flow) at a temperature of 25 oC and flow rates of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 l/hr. The TCTHE is composed of three copper tubes with outer diameters of 34.925 mm, 22.25 mm, and 9.525 mm, and thicknesses of 1.27 mm, 1.143 mm, and 0.762 mm, respectively. TCTHE tube's length was 670
... Show MoreThis paper presents a comparative study between different oil production enhancement scenarios in the Saadi tight oil reservoir located in the Halfaya Iraqi oil field. The reservoir exhibits poor petrophysical characteristics, including medium pore size, low permeability (reaching zero in some areas), and high porosity of up to 25%. Previous stimulation techniques such as acid fracturing and matrix acidizing have yielded low oil production in this reservoir. Therefore, the feasibility of hydraulic fracturing stimulation and/or horizontal well drilling scenarios was assessed to increase the production rate. While horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing can improve well performance, they come with high costs, often accounting for up t
... Show MoreThe distribution of the intensity of the comet Ison C/2013 is studied by taking its histogram. This distribution reveals four distinct regions that related to the background, tail, coma and nucleus. One dimensional temperature distribution fitting is achieved by using two mathematical equations that related to the coordinate of the center of the comet. The quiver plot of the gradient of the comet shows very clearly that arrows headed towards the maximum intensity of the comet.
Soil invertebrates community an important role as part of essential food chain and responsible for the decomposition in the soil, helps soil aeration , nutrients recycling and increase agricultural production by providing the essential elements necessary for photosynthesis and energy flow in ecosystems.The aim of the present study was to investigate the soil invertebrates community in one of the date palms plantation in Aljaderia district South of Baghdad, , and their relationships with some physical and chemical properties of the soil , as Five randomly distributed replicates of soil samples were collected monthly. Invertebrates samples were sorted from the soil with two methods, direct method to isolate large invertebrates and indirec
... Show MoreIn this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an
... Show More