The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The current study aims to compare between the assessments of the Rush model’s parameters to the missing and completed data in various ways of processing the missing data. To achieve the aim of the present study, the researcher followed the following steps: preparing Philip Carter test for the spatial capacity which consists of (20) items on a group of (250) sixth scientific stage students in the directorates of Baghdad Education at Al–Rusafa (1st, 2nd and 3rd) for the academic year (2018-2019). Then, the researcher relied on a single-parameter model to analyze the data. The researcher used Bilog-mg3 model to check the hypotheses, data and match them with the model. In addition
... Show MoreEngineering equipment is essential part in the construction project and usually manufactured with long lead times, large costs and special engineering requirements. Construction manager targets that equipment to be delivered in the site need date with the right quantity, appropriate cost and required quality, and this entails an efficient supplier can satisfy these targets. Selection of engineering equipment supplier is a crucial managerial process .it requires evaluation of multiple suppliers according to multiple criteria. This process is usually performed manually and based on just limited evaluation criteria, so better alternatives may be neglected. Three stages of survey comprised number of public a
... Show MoreConservative pipes conveying fluid such as pinned-pinned (p-p), clamped–pinned (c-p) pipes and clamped-clamped (c-c) lose their stability by buckling at certain critical fluid velocities. In order to experimentally evaluate these velocities, high flow-rate pumps that demand complicated fluid circuits must be used.
This paper studies a new experimental approach based on estimating the critical velocities from the measurement of several fundamental natural frequencies .In this approach low flow-rate pumps and simple fluid circuit can be used.
Experiments were carried out on two pipe models at three different boundary conditions. The results showed that the present approach is more accurate for est
... Show MoreIn this paper, we derived an estimator of reliability function for Laplace distribution with two parameters using Bayes method with square error loss function, Jeffery’s formula and conditional probability random variable of observation. The main objective of this study is to find the efficiency of the derived Bayesian estimator compared to the maximum likelihood of this function and moment method using simulation technique by Monte Carlo method under different Laplace distribution parameters and sample sizes. The consequences have shown that Bayes estimator has been more efficient than the maximum likelihood estimator and moment estimator in all samples sizes
A non-parametric kernel method with Bootstrap technology was used to estimate the confidence intervals of the system failure function of the log-normal distribution trace data. These are the times of failure of the machines of the spinning department of the weaving company in Wasit Governorate. Estimating the failure function in a parametric way represented by the method of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The comparison between the parametric and non-parametric methods was done by using the average of Squares Error (MES) criterion. It has been noted the efficiency of the nonparametric methods based on Bootstrap compared to the parametric method. It was also noted that the curve estimation is more realistic and appropriate for the re
... Show MoreThe research aims to explain the role of huge data analyzes in measuring quality costs in the Iraqi company for the production of seed, and the research problem was diagnosed with the weakness of the approved method to measure quality costs, and the weak traditional systems of data analyzes, the researcher in the theoretical aspect relied on collecting sources and previous studies, as well as Adoption of the applied analytical approach in the practical aspect, as a set of financial analyzes were applied within the measurement of quality costs and a statement of the role of data analyzes in the practical side, the research concluded to a set of conc
... Show MoreForeign trade is very important in global economies because of its impact on the sustainability of economic growth by stimulating economic activity, creating jobs and expanding production . On the other side , this policy is a major obstacle to many developing countries and the reason is due to the nature of the economies of those countries because they rely mostly on one or a few economic resources, which makes them rely mostly on exports to that resource while they import most of the needs of their local market Which makes them in a spiral of underdevelopment , dependence and economic exposure, which requires them to break that cycle and the launch of economic development Perhaps one of the most important means to a
... Show MoreReliable data transfer and energy efficiency are the essential considerations for network performance in resource-constrained underwater environments. One of the efficient approaches for data routing in underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) is clustering, in which the data packets are transferred from sensor nodes to the cluster head (CH). Data packets are then forwarded to a sink node in a single or multiple hops manners, which can possibly increase energy depletion of the CH as compared to other nodes. While several mechanisms have been proposed for cluster formation and CH selection to ensure efficient delivery of data packets, less attention has been given to massive data co
The aim of this paper is to identify Nano-particles that have been used in diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis in Iraq. All experiments conducted in this field were based on the following nanoparticles: gold nanoparticles, silver nanoparticles, zinc nanoparticles, and sodium chloride nanoparticles. Most of these experiments were reviewed in terms of differences in the concentrations of nanoparticles and the method that was used in the experiments whether it was in vivo or in vitro. These particles used in most experiments succeeded in inhibiting the growth of Leishmania parasites.
There are many images you need to large Khoznah space With the continued evolution of storage technology for computers, there is a need nailed required to reduce Alkhoznip space for pictures and image compression in a good way, the conversion method Alamueja