The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Abstract
The critical success factors of the means of the most modern in determining the main directions for organizations to achieve competitive advantage. and can be a critical success factors in organizations that overlap in the functional areas of the organization. that successful organizations use these factors to get to the uniqueness and distinction. as the entrance of critical success factors with the capacity Evaluative phase correction because discovery increases the perception of managers of what is important to the organization and using them to get to the Strategic Entrepreneurship. as it begins in terms of permanence of success and
... Show MoreThis study was designed to identify the extent of the effect of drug Acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin) on histological structure of liver in Swiss albino mice Mus musculus.(16) mice were used and divided into two groups. The first groupwas orally treated with )0.5ml(of aspirinat concentration of (50 mcg / kg) and the second group was considered as control group Treated with distiled water lasted for 30 days. Treatment with Aspirin led to the occurrence of histopathological cases included liver necrosis ,cellular infilitration, congestion in central vein and a case of Hemorrhage. The results also showed the absence of radial arrangement of the constituents of hepatic cells from tissue due to these changes with the control group.
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the analysis of the relations between the GDP of the agricultural sector in Iraq, oil prices, the exchange rate and the GDP both on the short term and long term. The research adopted data analysis for the period from 1980-2019 using the ARDL model. the results indicate the existence of long-term relationships between oil prices and the prices of each agricultural commodity at a significance level of 5%. Also, oil prices have a negative consequence on agricultural production in Iraq, and the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy that depends mainly on oil as a source of income and budget financing.
Television white spaces (TVWSs) refer to the unused part of the spectrum under the very high frequency (VHF) and ultra-high frequency (UHF) bands. TVWS are frequencies under licenced primary users (PUs) that are not being used and are available for secondary users (SUs). There are several ways of implementing TVWS in communications, one of which is the use of TVWS database (TVWSDB). The primary purpose of TVWSDB is to protect PUs from interference with SUs. There are several geolocation databases available for this purpose. However, it is unclear if those databases have the prediction feature that gives TVWSDB the capability of decreasing the number of inquiries from SUs. With this in mind, the authors present a reinforcement learning-ba
... Show MoreEnergy savings are very common in IoT sensor networks because IoT sensor nodes operate with their own limited battery. The data transmission in the IoT sensor nodes is very costly and consume much of the energy while the energy usage for data processing is considerably lower. There are several energy-saving strategies and principles, mainly dedicated to reducing the transmission of data. Therefore, with minimizing data transfers in IoT sensor networks, can conserve a considerable amount of energy. In this research, a Compression-Based Data Reduction (CBDR) technique was suggested which works in the level of IoT sensor nodes. The CBDR includes two stages of compression, a lossy SAX Quantization stage which reduces the dynamic range of the
... Show MoreOpenStreetMap (OSM), recognised for its current and readily accessible spatial database, frequently serves regions lacking precise data at the necessary granularity. Global collaboration among OSM contributors presents challenges to data quality and uniformity, exacerbated by the sheer volume of input and indistinct data annotation protocols. This study presents a methodological improvement in the spatial accuracy of OSM datasets centred over Baghdad, Iraq, utilising data derived from OSM services and satellite imagery. An analytical focus was placed on two geometric correction methods: a two-dimensional polynomial affine transformation and a two-dimensional polynomial conformal transformation. The former involves twelve coefficients for ad
... Show MoreIn this study the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) received by pediatrics patients undergoing chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examinations was estimated. The study was conducted in two hospitals in Najaf city where three radiographic systems were considered. The study participants were classified into four age groups 0-1 , 1-5 , 5-10 and 10-15 years. Calculations were performed using exposure factors, kVp, mAs and focal-skin distance, together with patient data age. The ESD was calculated for the involved patients who underwent an Antero-posterior (AP) chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examination. The resulted data were analyzed and compared with international dose references. For all studied radiographic examinations and all X-ray mac
... Show MoreThe integration of Artificial Intelligence with Big Data Analytics is one of the most groundbreaking developments that could change the face of educational sustainability in higher education.. Using AI and Big Data technologies not only makes the educational process more efficient but also changes the way people learn and thus opens the door for educators and institutions to make decisions based on the data. The document imparts the manner that the use of AI and the digital revolution can remove student requirements, execute the efficiency of the curriculum, and acquire the balance of educational resources through a majority of instances and the latest developments in that field. Furthermore, the paper, along with the issues of morality wit
... Show MoreConstructing a fine 3D geomodel for complex giant reservoir is a crucial task for hydrocarbon volume assessment and guiding for optimal development. The case under study is Mishrif reservoir of Halfaya oil field, which is an Iraqi giant carbonate reservoir. Mishrif mainly consists of limestone rocks which belong to Late Cenomanian age. The average gross thickness of formation is about 400m. In this paper, a high-resolution 3D geological model has been built using Petrel software that can be utilized as input for dynamic simulation. The model is constructed based on geological, geophysical, pertophysical and engineering data from about 60 available wells to characterize the structural, stratigraphic, and properties distri
... Show MoreIn recent years, the performance of Spatial Data Infrastructures for governments and companies is a task that has gained ample attention. Different categories of geospatial data such as digital maps, coordinates, web maps, aerial and satellite images, etc., are required to realize the geospatial data components of Spatial Data Infrastructures. In general, there are two distinct types of geospatial data sources exist over the Internet: formal and informal data sources. Despite the growth of informal geospatial data sources, the integration between different free sources is not being achieved effectively. The adoption of this task can be considered the main advantage of this research. This article addresses the research question of how the
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