The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The temperature control process of electric heating furnace (EHF) systems is a quite difficult and changeable task owing to non-linearity, time delay, time-varying parameters, and the harsh environment of the furnace. In this paper, a robust temperature control scheme for an EHF system is developed using an adaptive active disturbance rejection control (AADRC) technique with a continuous sliding-mode based component. First, a comprehensive dynamic model is established by using convection laws, in which the EHF systems can be characterized as an uncertain second order system. Second, an adaptive extended state observer (AESO) is utilized to estimate the states of the EHF system and total disturbances, in which the observer gains are updated
... Show MoreThe simulation of passively Q-switching is four non – linear first order differential equations. The optimization of passively Q-switching simulation was carried out using the constrained Rosenbrock technique. The maximization option in this technique was utilized to the fourth equation as an objective function; the parameters, γa, γc and β as were dealt with as decision variables. A FORTRAN program was written to determine the optimum values of the decision variables through the simulation of the four coupled equations, for ruby laser Q–switched by Dy +2: CaF2.For different Dy +2:CaF2 molecules number, the values of decision variables was predicted using our written program. The relaxation time of Dy +2: CaF2, used with ruby was
... Show MoreIn the present study, an attempt has been made to experimentally investigate the flexural performance of ten simply supported reinforced concrete gable roof beams, including solid control specimen (i.e., without openings) and nine beams with web openings of different dimensions and configurations. The nine beams with openings have identical reinforcement details. All beams were monotonically loaded to failure under mid-span loading. The main variables were the number of the created openings, the total area of the created openings, and the inclination angle of the posts between openings. Of interest is the load-carrying capacity, cracking resistance and propagation, deformability, failure mode, and strain development that represent the behav
... Show MoreThe present research was conducted to reduce the sulfur content of Iraqi heavy naphtha by adsorption using different metals oxides over Y-Zeolite. The Y-Zeolite was synthesized by a sol-gel technique. The average size of zeolite was 92.39 nm, surface area 558 m2/g, and pore volume 0.231 cm3/g. The metals of nickel, zinc, and copper were dispersed by an impregnation method to prepare Ni/HY, Zn/HY, Cu/HY, and Ni + Zn /HY catalysts for desulfurization. The adsorptive desulfurization was carried out in a batch mode at different operating conditions such as mixing time (10,15,30,60, and 600 min) and catalyst dosage (0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8,1, and 1.2 g). The most of the sulfur compounds were removed at 10 min for all catalyst types. The maximum
... Show Moretock markets changed up and down during time. Some companies’ affect others due to dependency on each other . In this work, the network model of the stock market is discribed as a complete weighted graph. This paper aims to investigate the Iraqi stock markets using graph theory tools. The vertices of this graph correspond to the Iraqi markets companies, and the weights of the edges are set ulrametric distance of minimum spanning tree.