The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Earth’s climate changes rapidly due to the increases in human demands and rapid economic growth. These changes will affect the entire biosphere, mostly in negative ways. Predicting future changes will put us in a better position to minimize their catastrophic effects and to understand how humans can cope with the new changes beforehand. In this research, previous global climate data set observations from 1961-1990 have been used to predict the future climate change scenario for 2010-2039. The data were processed with Idrisi Andes software and the final Köppen-Geiger map was created with ArcGIS software. Based on Köppen climate classification, it was found that areas of Equator, Arid Steppes, and Snow will decrease by 3.9 %, 2.96%, an
... Show MoreThis work aimed to investigate the prevalence of pathogenic fungi and evaluate the antifungal activity of Trichoderma orientale FMR12486 crude extract against pathogenic fungi isolated from patients attending the National Center for Thoracic and Respiratory Diseases (having a history of tuberculosis) and consultant of Dermatology of Baghdad hospital, Iraq. A total of 80 clinical specimens were collected: 20 skin scrapings specimens and 60 sputum specimens. The results of direct examination by KOH 10% and culture showed that 11 (55%) cases from 20 skin specimens were positive for fungal infections, while in the sputum specimens, 28 (47%) cases from 60 were positive. Candida albicans represented the most common fungal infection isolat
... Show MoreThis research presents a method of using MATLAB in analyzing a nonhomogeneous soil (Gibson-type) by
estimating the displacements and stresses under the strip footing during applied incremental loading
sequences. This paper presents a two-dimensional finite element method. In this method, the soil is divided into a number of triangle elements. A model soil (Gibson-type) with linearly increasing modulus of elasticity with depth is presented. The influences of modulus of elasticity, incremental loading, width of footing, and depth of footing are considered in this paper. The results are compared with authors' conclusions of previous studies.
In this paper, a new technique is offered for solving three types of linear integral equations of the 2nd kind including Volterra-Fredholm integral equations (LVFIE) (as a general case), Volterra integral equations (LVIE) and Fredholm integral equations (LFIE) (as special cases). The new technique depends on approximating the solution to a polynomial of degree and therefore reducing the problem to a linear programming problem(LPP), which will be solved to find the approximate solution of LVFIE. Moreover, quadrature methods including trapezoidal rule (TR), Simpson 1/3 rule (SR), Boole rule (BR), and Romberg integration formula (RI) are used to approximate the integrals that exist in LVFIE. Also, a comparison between those
... Show MoreSince more than a decade, human rights dialogue in the European Mediterranean Region has been marked by a number of tensions. Although a number of factors contribute to such disputes, the effect of human rights conditionality, which ties EU economic cooperation progression with partner countries human rights advancement, on the dialogue has not been studied. Understanding the aspects, impacts, and effects of conditionality on Euro-Med relations is crucial for furthering dialogue. Yet this variable has been almost entirely neglected in academic and policy research. The research concludes several direct and indirect impacts of conditionality on human rights dialogue using a mixed methodology approach. Direct effects are reflected in the wi
... Show MoreThe purpose of this study is to demonstrate a simple high sensitivity vapor sensor for propanol ((CH3)2CHOH). A free space gap was employed in two arms of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer to serve as the sensing mechanism by adding propanol volume (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1) ml and to set the phase reference with a physical spacing of (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) mm. The propagation constant of transmitted light in the Mach-Zehnder interferometer’s gap changes due to the small variation in the refractive index inside sensing arm that will further shift the optical phase of the signal. Experimental results indicated that the highest sensitivity of propanol was about 0.0275 nm/ml in different liquid volume while highest phase shift was 0.182×103 i
... Show MoreAA3003-H14 aluminum alloy plates were welded by friction stir welding and TIG welding.
Fatigue properties of the welded joints were evaluated based on the superior tensile properties for
FSW at 1500 rpm rotational speed and 80 mm/min welding speed. However, there is not much
information available on effect of welding parameters with evolution of fatigue life of friction stir
welds. The present study experimentally analyzed fatigue properties for base, FSW, and TIG welds
of AA 3003-H14 aluminum alloy. Fatigue properties of FSW joints were slightly lower than the
base metal and higher than TIG welding.