The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Crime is considered as an unlawful activity of all kinds and it is punished by law. Crimes have an impact on a society's quality of life and economic development. With a large rise in crime globally, there is a necessity to analyze crime data to bring down the rate of crime. This encourages the police and people to occupy the required measures and more effectively restricting the crimes. The purpose of this research is to develop predictive models that can aid in crime pattern analysis and thus support the Boston department's crime prevention efforts. The geographical location factor has been adopted in our model, and this is due to its being an influential factor in several situations, whether it is traveling to a specific area or livin
... Show MoreThe majority of the environmental outputs from gas refineries are oily wastewater. This research reveals a novel combination of response surface methodology and artificial neural network to optimize and model oil content concentration in the oily wastewater. Response surface methodology based on central composite design shows a highly significant linear model with P value <0.0001 and determination coefficient R2 equal to 0.747, R adjusted was 0.706, and R predicted 0.643. In addition from analysis of variance flow highly effective parameters from other and optimization results verification revealed minimum oily content with 8.5 ± 0.7 ppm when initial oil content 991 ppm, tempe
Present investigation aimed to study plasma BNP hormone estimation as predictor of brain stroke and neurocognitive in relative with other limitations in CKD patient. The case control experimental study was conducted on CKD patient at Yarmuk Hospital at Baghdad Province, Iraq from February to April 2020. The results showed that there were significant variances (P< 0.05) between CKD patients and control group, there was significant increase in BNP hormone and cystatin-C levels at patient, while ihematological parameters were significantly decreased. The parameters of lipid profile were significantly increased (P<0.05). The result revealed that there was relationship between BNP hormone level and CKD. This support that BNP level is related wit
... Show MoreThis paper describes the use of microcomputer as a laboratory instrument system. The system is focused on three weather variables measurement, are temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. This instrument is a type of data acquisition system; in this paper we deal with the design and implementation of data acquisition system based on personal computer (Pentium) using Industry Standard Architecture (ISA)bus. The design of this system involves mainly a hardware implementation, and the software programs that are used for testing, measuring and control. The system can be used to display the required information that can be transferred and processed from the external field to the system. A visual basic language with Microsoft foundation cl
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to investigate the presence of Staphylococcus aureus in the red and white meat available in local markets. They were selected ten samples of red and white meat randomly (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Brazil) from different markets in Baghdad, and the results of reading the nutrition facts of media indication card showed that all models confirm to the Iraqi standard quality in terms of scanning all data of the media indication card, except for the birds of Bayader, where the date of expire & production date of the product was not mentioned. Also, the results of the study showed that there is no Staphylococcus aureus in local red and white meat as well as imported.
Air pollution evaluation of the operational processes in the East Baghdad oil field was carried out. The analysis was carried out by ICP-MS technique. Total Suspended Particles (TSP) air load was higher than Iraqi Standards and world international allowable limits of World Health Organization. The mean concentrations of gases carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, in the air were within national and world standards, while the mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide was higher than standard limits. The air of the study area is considered a good quality for CO, CO2 and NO2 with no health effect, while it is hazardous for TSP that have serious risk for people with respiratory disease. The mean concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu and
... Show MoreThe purpose of this work is to concurrently estimate the UVvisible spectra of binary combinations of piroxicam and mefenamic acid using the chemometric approach. To create the model, spectral data from 73 samples (with wavelengths between 200 and 400 nm) were employed. A two-layer artificial neural network model was created, with two neurons in the output layer and fourteen neurons in the hidden layer. The model was trained to simulate the concentrations and spectra of piroxicam and mefenamic acid. For piroxicam and mefenamic acid, respectively, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with feed-forward back-propagation learning produced root mean square errors of prediction of 0.1679 μg/mL and 0.1154 μg/mL, with coefficients of determination of
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