The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this study, we attempt to provide healthcare service to the pilgrims. This study describes how a multimedia courseware can be used in making the pilgrims aware of the common diseases that are present in Saudi Arabia during the pilgrimage. The multimedia courseware will also be used in providing some information about the symptoms of these diseases, and how each of them can be treated. The multimedia courseware contains a virtual representation of a hospital, some videos of actual cases of patients, and authentic learning activities intended to enhance health competencies during the pilgrimage. An examination of the courseware was conducted so as to study the manner in which the elements of the courseware are applied in real-time learn
... Show MoreThe main problem when dealing with fuzzy data variables is that it cannot be formed by a model that represents the data through the method of Fuzzy Least Squares Estimator (FLSE) which gives false estimates of the invalidity of the method in the case of the existence of the problem of multicollinearity. To overcome this problem, the Fuzzy Bridge Regression Estimator (FBRE) Method was relied upon to estimate a fuzzy linear regression model by triangular fuzzy numbers. Moreover, the detection of the problem of multicollinearity in the fuzzy data can be done by using Variance Inflation Factor when the inputs variable of the model crisp, output variable, and parameters are fuzzed. The results were compared usin
... Show MoreThe study aimed to prepare a nanocapsules formulation from the acetonic extract of Moringa oleifera leaves, using polymeric capsules, and test its toxicity against the third instar larvae of Culex pipiens mosquitoes. The leaf extract was prepared using acetone as a solvent, and the nano polymeric capsules were prepared using the synthetic polymer polyethylene glycol 4000. The results showed the successful preparation of nano polymeric capsules from the leaf extract, with an average particle size of 259.2 nm, and a nanocapsule diameter of 263.83 nm, as determined by DLS and SEM analysis, respectively. The toxicity results indicated that the nano polymeric capsules of the leaf extract exhibited higher mortality rates, reaching 97.6% a
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The effect of adding raw bacteriocin produced by Lactobacillus bulgaricus to cheese curd at an amount of (5 and 10 and 15) mL/kg cheese as a biological preservative to prolong the shelf life of soft cheese, in addition to the control treatment, knowing that each 1 mL of bacteriocin filter contains 15 units/ mL of bacteriocin. The results of the physicochemical, microbial and sensory tests for cheese stored at refrigerator temperature for a period (zero) to (21) d of adding bacteriocin showed the superiority of the treatment of cheese added to 15 mL/kg cheese of bacteriocin over the rest of the other treatments during the storage period, wh
... Show MoreThe term ‘photometry’ refers to the accurate determination of the apparent brightness of an astronomical object. Until roughly 1980, nearly all astronomical photometry was done by means of analog measurements of photographic plates, or by analog or digital (photon-counting) techniques with photomultipliers. These photometers produced brightness readings which were typically displayed on dials, plotted on strip charts or printed on strips of paper, and it was often quite practical to analyse these raw data with pencil, paper and a slide rule or table of logarithms. However, during the late 1970s electronic area detectors for astronomy became more advanced: first, for a brief period, television-type cameras were employed, but these were s
... Show MoreThe study deals with reactivity insertion linear and non linear and/or Ramp reactivity expressed as a polynomial in time in the presence of two Feedback mechanisms, using the neutronic-thermohydraulic coupling in order to predict the neutron behavior as a function of time in terms of reactor power. Also, a comparative study has been achieved in the case of the presence of the feedback mechanisms. Insertion of Ramp reactivities in terms of polynomial in time to study the behavior of power and reactivity as a function of time in the presence of two feedback mechanisms (fuel and coolant) has been carried out and the results are displayed as plots, and showed this results corresponding with international results. The present study shows t
... Show MoreThe paper discusses the structural and optical properties of In2O3 and In2O3-SnO2 gas sensor thin films were deposited on glass and silicon substrates and grown by irradiation of assistant microwave on seeded layer nucleated using spin coating technique. The X-ray diffraction revealed a polycrystalline nature of the cubic structure. Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) used for morphology analysis that shown the grain size of the prepared thin film is less than 100 nm, surface roughness and root mean square for In2O3 where increased after loading SnO2, this addition is a challenge in gas sensing application. Sensitivity of In2O3 thin film against NO2 toxic gas is 35% at 300oC. Sensing properties were improved after adding Tin Oxide (SnO2) to be mo
... Show MoreOne of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified ( Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases , Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .
Our research obj
... Show MoreTwo dimensional meso-scale concrete modeling was used in finite element analysis of plain concrete beam subjected to bending. The plane stress 4-noded quadrilateral elements were utilized to model coarse aggregate, cement mortar. The effect of aggregate fraction distribution, and pores percent of the total area – resulting from air voids entrapped in concrete during placement on the behavior of plain concrete beam in flexural was detected. Aggregate size fractions were randomly distributed across the profile area of the beam. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was employed to treat the discontinuities problems result from double phases of concrete and cracking that faced during the finite element analysis of concrete beam. Crac
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: Dorsal reconstruction and augmentation for a saddle nose or generalized under projecting nose (familial ) require some type of grafting that increase the volume, raise the radix , raise the entire dorsum ,camouflage the osseocartilaginous junction or any irregularity along the dorsum, diced cartilage graft wrapped with fascia lata used to achieve that . AIM OF THE STUDY : The purpose of the study was to assess the aesthetic and functional outcome of dorsal augmentation by diced cartilage graft wrapped with fascia lata. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between July 2018 and May 2019. 7 patients included ,4 females and 3 males ,their age ranged between 20 to 37 years ,5 were primary and 2 secondary case rhinoplasty,2 operated by closed appro
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