The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Pre-eclampsia is the most common medical complication of pregnancy associated with increased maternal and infant mortality and morbidity. Its exact etiology is not known, although several evidences indicate that various elements might play an important role in pre-eclampsia. This study was carried out to analyze and to compare the concentration of calcium, in mild pre-eclampsia and in normal pregnant women , and to determine the effect of oral supplementation with calcium on mild pre-eclampsia , and whether this effect is related to the change in the level of serum calcium. Forty- five women in the third trimester of pregnancy were selected to participate in this study and divided into: fifteen apparently healthy, normo
... Show MoreIn this paper, we present new algorithm for the solution of the nonlinear high order multi-point boundary value problem with suitable multi boundary conditions. The algorithm is based on the semi-analytic technique and the solutions are calculated in the form of a rapid convergent series. It is observed that the method gives more realistic series solution that converges very rapidly in physical problems. Illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency and simplicity of the proposed method in solving this type of multi- point boundary value problems.
The current research aims to describe the level of responsiveness and awareness of the officials of the General Company for Construction Industries to the indicators of the blue market strategy of (1. reduction 2. exclusion 3. increase 4. innovation) and the degree of prioritization according to their importance as well as the differences in the responses of the sample investigated according to the personal variables. As a main tool in the collection of data from the sample, which consisted of(34) officers (Associate, Manager, Section Manager, Division Officer) in the company being investigated, and computed mean, standard deviations, percentage weights,and test (x2 ) based on the SPSS. The research reached the following
... Show MoreThe present paper deals with experimental investigation of the performance of air cooled split air conditioner, with evaporative water mist pre cooling to increase the cooling capacity and reduce the consumption power under hot and dry climate. This investigation considers how the performance can be enhanced by using water mist to pre-cool ambient air entering the condensers by adiabatic cooling process which depends on the ambient air wet bulb temperature; as well the condensing temperature and condensing pressure will be decreased accordingly. So the cooling capacity would be increased and consumption power would be decreased, consequently the energy ratio, EER would be improved. The performance of air cooled air conditioner with water
... Show MoreEarth’s climate changes rapidly due to the increases in human demands and rapid economic growth. These changes will affect the entire biosphere, mostly in negative ways. Predicting future changes will put us in a better position to minimize their catastrophic effects and to understand how humans can cope with the new changes beforehand. In this research, previous global climate data set observations from 1961-1990 have been used to predict the future climate change scenario for 2010-2039. The data were processed with Idrisi Andes software and the final Köppen-Geiger map was created with ArcGIS software. Based on Köppen climate classification, it was found that areas of Equator, Arid Steppes, and Snow will decrease by 3.9 %, 2.96%, an
... Show MoreHartree-Fock calculations for even-even Tin isotopes using
Skyrme density dependent effective nucleon-nucleon interaction are
discussed systematically. Skyrme interaction and the general formula
for the mean energy of a spherical nucleus are described. The charge
and matter densities with their corresponding rms radii and the
nuclear skin for Sn isotopes are studied and compared with the
experimental data. The potential energy curves obtained with
inclusion of the pairing force between the like nucleons in Hartree-
Fock-Bogoliubov approach are also discussed.
Objective- the study aim to determine the cardiac patient knowledge about anticoagulant medications using and its relationship with demographic data(age. gender. level of education. occupational). Methodology- A descriptive study(quasi-experimental)design was carried out to determine cardiac patient knowledge consider to using anticoagulant medications . Starting from(1th Jun 2017 to5th October 2018).To achieve the objectives of the study, a non-probability sample (a purposive sample) consisted of random sample comprised of (30) patients were taken anticoagulant medications ..The measurement of patient knowledge were collected through the use of questionnaire which is related to patient knowledge toward using the anticoagulant medication
... Show More<span lang="EN-US">Proper employment of Hybrid Wind/ PV system is often implemented near the load, and it is linked with the grid to study dynamic stability analysis. Generally, instability is because of sudden load demand variant and variant in renewable sources generation. As well as, weather variation creates several factors that affect the operation of the integrated hybrid system. So this paper introduces output result of a PV /wind via power electronic technique; DC chopper; that is linked to Iraqi power system to promote the facilitating achievement of Wind/ PV voltage. Moreover, PSS/E is used to study dynamic power stability for hybrid system which is attached to an effective region of Iraqi Network. The hybrid system
... Show MoreRemoving of terasil yellow (W-6GS) dye it was studied by using Iraqi Siliceous Rocks Powder (SRP). The study included adsorption isotherms and some effects: temperature, salty medium and the acidity the study that the adsorption isotherms obeys to Temkin equation more than other equations the results showed that the adsorption increased with increasing temperature (Endothermic process. Based on the results, thermodynamic functions (˜H, ˜G, ˜S) were estimated. The amount of adsorbent on the surface increasing with increasing the acidity solution. The kinetics study of the adsorption treated according (Lagergren equation). The kinetic data of experiments properly correlated with the first order kinetic equation.
In the present work a theoretical analysis depending on the new higher order . element in shear deformation theory for simply supported cross-ply laminated plate is developed. The new displacement field of the middle surface expanded as a combination of exponential and trigonometric function of thickness coordinate with the transverse displacement taken to be constant through the thickness. The governing equations are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution method to obtain the deflection and stresses under uniform sinusoidal load. The effect of many design parameters such as number of laminates, aspect ratio and thickness ratio on static behavior of the laminated composite plate has been studied. The
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