The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this study, a 3 mm thickness 7075-T6 aluminium alloy sheet was used in the friction stir welding process. Using the design of experiment to reduce the number of experiments and to obtain the optimum friction stir welding parameters by utilizing Taguchi technique based on the ultimate tensile test results. Orthogonal array of L9 (33) was used based on three numbers of the parameters and three levels for each parameter, where shoulder-workpiece interference depth (0.20, 0.25, and 0.3) mm, pin geometry (cylindrical thread flat end, cylindrical thread with 3 flat round end, cylindrical thread round end), and thread pitch (0.8, 1, and 1.2) mm) this technique executed by Minitab 17 software. The results showed th
... Show MoreThis paper investigated the fatigue life behavior of two composite materials subjected to different times of shot peening (2, 4 and 6 min).The first material prepared from unsaturated polyester with E-glass reinforcement by 33% volume fraction. While, the second one was prepared from unsaturated polyester with aluminum powder by2.5% volume fraction. The experimental results showed that the improvement in endurance limit was obtained (for the first material) at 2, 4 and 6 min shot peening times where the percentage of maximum improvement was 25% at shot peening time of 6 min. While, the endurance limit of the second material decreased at shot peening times of 2, 4 and 6 min where the percentage of maximum reduction was 29 % at shot peenin
... Show MorePhotonic Crystal Fiber Interferometers (PCFIs) are widely used for sensing applications. This work presents the fabrication and the characterization of a relative humidity sensor based on a polymer-coated photonic crystal fiber that operates in a Mach- Zehnder Interferometer (MZI) transmission mode. The fabrication of the sensor involved splicing a short (1 cm) length of Photonic Crystal Fiber (PCF) between two single-mode fibers (SMF). It was then coated with a layer of agarose solution. Experimental results showed that a high humidity sensitivity of 29.37 pm/%RH was achieved within a measurement range of 27–95%RH. The sensor also showed good repeatability, small size, measurement accuracy and wide humidity range. The RH sensitivity o
... Show MoreThe article presents the results of studying the conchological variability of the terrestrial mollusk Chondrulopsina fedtschenkoi (Ancey, 1886), known to occur in three regions of the Zaravshan Range (Central Asia): the Urgutsay Gorge, the vicinity of the Gissarak Reservoir and the Ingichka-Irmak Gorge. Conchological variability was determined based on statistical analysis. The climate of the three regions is different, and environmental factors have led to changes in the mollusk shell. The shells have changed in response to environmental factors, these are their adaptive traits for survival; the variability of conchological features is also reflected in the color of the shell, and the intensive development of the color of the shell in m
... Show MoreThe -mixing of - transition in Er 168 populated in Er)n,n(Er 168168 reaction is calculated in the present work by using a2- ratio method. This method has used in previou studies [4, 5, 6, 7] in case that the second transition is pure or for that transition which can be considered as pure only, but in one work we applied this method for two cases, in the first one for pure transition and in the 2nd one for non pure transitions. We take into accunt the experimental a2- coefficient for p revious works and -values for one transition only [1]. The results obtained are, in general, in agood agreement within associated errors, with those reported previously [1], the discrepancies that occur are due to inaccuracies existing
... Show MoreThe present study is to investigate the possibility of using wastes in the form of scrap iron (ZVI) and/ or aluminum ZVAI for the detention and immobilization of the chromium ions in simulated wastewater. Different batch equilibrium parameters such as contact time (0-250) min, sorbent dose (2-8 g ZVI/100 mL and 0.2-1 g ZVAI/100 mL), initial pH (3-6), initial pollutant concentration of 50 mg/L, and speed of agitation (0-250) rpm were investigated. Maximum contaminant removal efficiency corresponding to (96 %) at 250 min contact time, 1g ZVAI/ 6g ZVI sorbent mass ratio, pH 5.5, pollutant concentration of 50 mg/L initially, and 250 rpm agitation speed were obtained.
The best isotherm model for the batch single Cr(III) uptake by ZVI
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In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
... Show MoreThe valley Dwiridj of drainage basins task that lies east of Iraq and thus we have in this study the application of tow models athletes on the three basins of the valley to get Mor e values accurate to Estimate the volume of runoff and peak discharge and time climax and through the use of Technology remote sensing (GIS),has been show through the application of both models, that the maximum value for the amount of Dwiridj valley of (1052/m3/s) According to Equation (SCS-CN) and about (1370.2/m3/s)by approach (GIUH) that difference is the amount of discharge to the Equation (SCS-CN) ar not accurate as(GIUH) approaches Equation ecalling the results of the Field ces Department of damand reservoirs that the volume of runoff to the valley wase
... Show MoreBackground: Due to the variations in tooth anatomy and size among different populations, this study aimed to compare the mesiodistal width of primary second molars in Iraqi children with the mesiodistal width of stainless-steel crowns from different companies. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 220 intact maxillary and mandibular primary second molars selected from boys and girls’ Iraqi children aged 8-9 years collected from different primary schools in Baghdad city. The mesiodistal dimensions of the selected teeth and the available maxillary and mandibular stainless-steel crowns from three different companies were measured by using a 3-D scanner, and then the whole measurements were calculated usin
... Show MoreDiscussed the research variables are important, privatization options and strategic analysis of the external environment, and that the purpose of the research is the trade-off between privatization options and choose the most appropriate alternative in proportion to the external environment, the research aims to determine the privatization the most appropriate option for companies and public contracting, showing the importance of the study provide the privatization of public companies as a strategy can all its way public sector organizations from the transfer of work practices or private sector organizations and mechanisms to it as contributing to improving the level of skills Develop the current and future level of performance,
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