The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Abstract
Dame Ngaio Edith Marsh (1899-1982), a writer of detective fiction, was born
at Christchurch, New Zealand. Her hero, Chief Detective Inspector Roderick Alleyn,
appears in her first novel, A Man Lay Dead (1934), and in subsequent novels
including Death and the Dancing Footman (1942). She wrote twenty detective novels.
The Dancing Footman, Thomas, listening to a playful song from the smokingroom's
radio where William lay dead after being killed by his brother, Nicholas,
provides the most suspected guest at Highfold with badly needed alibi. The murderer,
Nicholas, plans an almost perfect crime, but the dance of this footman spoils his
scheme. When Alleyn and his group of policemen stage a show in which the
Six isolates of A. pullulans were collected from many sources including Hibiscus sabdariffa (Roselle), old Roofs of houses and bathroom surface that referred as Ap ros1, Ap or2, 3, 4 and Ap bs5, 6 respectively, all these isolates were identified based on morphological characteristics and nutritional physiology profiles, all were able to utilize various carbon and nitrogen sources such as glucose, xylose, sucrose, maltose, ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate and ammonium chloride, also they showed positive test for starch and amylase, while α-cellulose, ethanol, and methanol were could not be ass
... Show MoreIn the present work, the behavior of thick-walled cylinder of elasto-plastic material (polymeric material) has been studied analytically. The study is based on modified Von-Mises yield criterion (for non metallic material). The equations of stress distribution are obtained for the cylinder under general cases of elastic expansion, plastic initiation and elastic-plastic expansion.
A computer program is developed for evaluating the stress distribution. The solution is carried out for worst boundary conditions when the cylinder is subjected to the combination of pressure load, inertia load, and temperature gradient.
The results are presente
... Show MoreBubbled slabs can be exposed to damage or deterioration during its life. Therefore, the solution for strengthening must be provided. For the simulation of this case, the analysis of finite elements was carried out using ABAQUS 2017 software on six simply supported specimens, during which five are voided with 88 bubbles, and the other is solid. The slab specimens with symmetric boundary conditions were of dimensions 3200/570/150 mm. The solid slab and one bubbled slab are deemed references. Each of the other slabs was exposed to; (1) service charge, then unloaded (2) external prestressing and (3) loading to collapse under two line load. The external strengthening was applied using prestressed wire with four approaches, wh
... Show MoreTransmission lines are generally subjected to faults, so it is advantageous to determine these faults as quickly as possible. This study uses an Artificial Neural Network technique to locate a fault as soon as it happens on the Doukan-Erbil of 132kv double Transmission lines network. CYME 7.1-Programming/Simulink utilized simulation to model the suggested network. A multilayer perceptron feed-forward artificial neural network with a back propagation learning algorithm is used for the intelligence locator's training, testing, assessment, and validation. Voltages and currents were applied as inputs during the neural network's training. The pre-fault and post-fault values determined the scaled values. The neural network's p
... Show MoreExistence of these soils, sometimes with high gypsum content, caused difficult problems to the buildings and strategic projects due to dissolution and leaching of gypsum by the action of waterflow through soil mass. In this research, a new technique is adopted to investigate the performance of replacement and geosynthetic reinforcement materials to improve the gypseous soil behavior through experimential set up manufactured loaclally specially for this work. A series of tests were carried out using steel container (600*600*500) mm. A square footing (100*100) mm was placed at the center of the top surface of the bed soil. The results showed that the most effective thickness for the dune sand layer with geotextile at the interface, within
... Show MoreWe demonstrate that the selective hydrogenation of acetylene depends on energy profile of the partial and full hydrogenation routes and the thermodynamic stability of adsorbed C2H2 in comparison to C2H4.
Tin Selenide (SnSe) Nano crystalline thin films of thickness 400±20 nm were deposited on glass substrate by thermal evaporation technique at R.T under a vacuum of ∼ 2 × 10− 5 mbar to study the effect of annealing temperatures (as-deposited, 100, 150 and 200) °C on its structural, surface morphology and optical properties. The films structure was characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD) which showed that all the films have polycrystalline in nature and orthorhombic structure, with the preferred orientation along the (111) plane. These films was synthesized of very fine crystallites size of (14.8-24.5) nm, the effect of annealing temperatures on the cell parameters, crystallite size and dislocation density were observed.
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