The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The research aims to find a contemporary model in analyzing the reasons behind the delay of the investment plan projects suffered by the North Oil Company. This model is able to understand the environment surrounding the implementation of projects in the light of the changes facing the company at the present time, which in turn requires the need to identify the most important strengths and weaknesses Internal and external opportunities and threats using the SWOT matrix and identify the appropriate strategic alternative based on clear policy, strategies and programs to address weaknesses and look to the future prospects as the company can be stronger and more flexible environmental changes surrounding the reality of implementation
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The objective of this study is to measure the impact of financial development on economic growth in Iraq over the period (2004-2018) by applying a fully corrected square model (FMOLS) Whereas, a set of variables represented by (credit-to-private ratio of GDP, the ratio of money supply in the broad sense of GDP, percentage of bank deposits from GDP) were chosen as indicators for measuring financial development and GDP to measure economic growth.
Major tests have been carried out, such as the stability test (Unite Root Test), the integration test (Cointegration). Results of the study showed that there
... Show MoreErbil city is located in the northern Iraq with a population of over one million people. Due to water crises farmers usually use wastewater and well water for the agricultural production. In this study six stations were designed to sample waste water and three from well water to define waste water and ground water characteristics. In this study, Residual Na+ Carbonate, Mg++ hazard, salinity hazard, Kelley index, %sodium, total hardness, permeability index, potential salinity, sodium adsorption ratio, and Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI) were determined. The order of average cation concentrations in water was Mg2+> Ca2+ > Na+ > K+. While the proportion of main
... Show MoreThe applications of herbal medicine have recently acquired growing interest in range of the prophylaxis and treatment of diseases. Olibanum has been used since ancient eras and several reports studied the pharmacological characteristics of boswellic acid, particularly their effect on the inflammatory response, analgesic properties, and anti-arthritic activity mostly in cell lines, but new approaches include animal models to assess these natural derivatives effects taking into consideration of being safer than synthetic preparations. The impact of olibanum oil on several parameters was studied in rats during this study. These included white blood cell (WBC) count, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and C reactive protein (CRP), as well a
... Show MoreBackground: Multi- drug resistant (MDR) Staphylococcus aureus infections have become a major public health concern in both hospital and community settings.Objective: to investigate the antibacterial activity of T. Foenum- groecum essential oil against skin infection with S. aureus and to study probable synergistic activity in combination with Clindamycin.Type of the study: Cross-sectional study.
Methods: Antibacterial activity of T. Foenum- groecum essential oil extract (1.2gm/100 µl) was investigated in multi- drug resistance (MDR) Staphylococcus aureus specimen isolated from patients with skin infection in Baghdad. T. Foenum- groecum use externally for cellulites and skin inflammation due to the presence of diosgenin .fast liq
... Show MoreA new and hybrid deep learning-based approach for diagnosing faults in electric vehicle (EV) drive motors is proposed in this article. This article presents a new and hybrid deep learning-based method of diagnosing faults in the drive motors of electric vehicles (EV). In contrast to standard CNNLSTM approaches that depend on SoftMax classification, the introduced framework combines a Random Forest (RF) classifier to enhance the generalization, interpretability, and robustness of fault prediction. Furthermore meant for use on edge computing equipment with IoT integration, the design allows for real-time monitoring in resource-limited settings. The introduced algorithm utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier for accurate fault classification
... Show MoreSpatial data observed on a group of areal units is common in scientific applications. The usual hierarchical approach for modeling this kind of dataset is to introduce a spatial random effect with an autoregressive prior. However, the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for this hierarchical framework requires the spatial effects to be sampled from their full conditional posteriors one-by-one resulting in poor mixing. More importantly, it makes the model computationally inefficient for datasets with large number of units. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach that uses the spectral structure of the adjacency to construct a low-rank expansion for modeling spatial dependence. We propose a pair of computationally efficient estimati
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