The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The risk assessment for three pipelines belonging to the Basra Oil Company (X1, X2, X3), to develop an appropriate risk mitigation plan for each pipeline to address all high risks. Corrosion risks were assessed using a 5 * 5 matrix. Now, the risk assessment for X1 showed that the POF for internal corrosion is 5, which means that its risk is high due to salinity and the presence of CO, H2S and POF for external corrosion is 1 less than the corrosion, while for Flowline X2 the probability of internal corrosion is 4 and external is 4 because there is no Cathodic protection applied due to CO2, H2S and Flowline X3 have 8 leaks due to internal corrosion so the hazard rating was very high 5 and could be due to salinity, CO2, fluid flow rate
... Show MoreStatistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an u
... Show MoreThis study analyses six political cartoons selected based on their relevance to current Iraqi political issues, specifically the period between 2005 and 2015, from American online newspapers (calgecartooms.com). The selection criteria included the cartoons' satirical elements, visual rhetoric, and their ability to engage with themes such as power dynamics, social issues, and public opinion. It sheds light on how these cartoons can function as mediators of meanings between the cartoonists and the readers. The data is examined using multimodal discourse analysis (MDA), which combines language study with the analysis of other visual elements, like colors, gestures, and images, to understand meaning (O’Halloran et al., 2011). The Visual Socia
... Show MoreThis paper aims at investigating the effect of postmodernism and technology on the social life in Don Delillo's novel The White Noise. In this novel, Don Delillo portrays the chaotic life by using modern technology which has been presented by three ways. The first way is by television as being a source of information and entertainment. The second way is by the toxic event whereas the third is by Dylar's episode and its destructive consequences. He depicts that through the atmosphere of Jack's family plus its effects on the life and thoughts of the elders and society. He proves that technology is leading humanity not to safety, but to death. He further highlights that by showing the impact of technology on the life of the main charac
... Show MoreThe development that solar energy will have in the next years needs a reliable estimation of available solar energy resources. Several empirical models have been developed to calculate global solar radiation using various parameters such as extraterrestrial radiation, sunshine hours, albedo, maximum temperature, mean temperature, soil temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, evaporation, total perceptible water, number of rainy days, and altitude and latitude. In present work i) First part has been calculated solar radiation from the daily values of the hours of sun duration using Angstrom model over the Iraq for at July 2017. The second part has been mapping the distribution of so