The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .
In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.
Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample
... Show MoreThe developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz
... Show MoreThis study dealt with the basics of financial inclusion in terms of concept, importance and objectives, The empowerment of women financially and bank ,and then the relationship between financial inclusion and women, and determine the requirements of inclusion Financial resources for women. The analytical descriptive method was used for data, which included reviewing and analyzing information and data in economic and financial literature. The study: reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are Financial inclusion contributes to women's financial and banking support, as there is a positive relationship between financial institutions Banking and women's access to financial and banking services, thus playing a rol
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to propose mathematical expressions for estimation of the flexural strength of plain concrete members from ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurements. More than two hundred pieces of precast concrete kerb units were subjected to a scheduled test program. The tests were divided into two categories; non-destructive ultrasonic and bending or rupture tests. For each precast unit, direct and indirect (surface) ultrasonic pulses were subjected to the concrete media to measure their travel velocities. The results of the tests were monitored in two graphs so that two mathematical relationships can be drawn. Direct pulse velocity versus the flexural strength was given in the first relationship while the second equation des
... Show MoreArray antennas have an interesting role in the radio astronomy field. The array antennas allow astronomers to obtain high-resolution signals with high sensitivity to weak signals. This paper estimates the meteors' positions entering the Earth's atmosphere and develops a simulation for array antenna radar to analyze the meteor's echoes. The GNU radio software was used to process the echoes, which is a free open-source software development toolkit that provides signal processing blocks to implement in radio projects. Then, the simulation determines the azimuth and elevation of the meteors. An improved Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm has been suggested to analyze these echoes. The detected power of each meteor echo has
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to propose mathematical expressions for estimation of the flexural strength of plain concrete members from ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurements. More than two hundred
pieces of precast concrete kerb units were subjected to a scheduled test program. The tests were divided into two categories; non-destructive ultrasonic and bending or rupture tests. For each precast unit, direct and indirect (surface) ultrasonic pulses were subjected to the concrete media to measure their travel velocities. The results of the tests were mointered in two graphs so that two mathematical relationships can be drawn. Direct pulse velocity versus the flexural strength was given in the first relationship while the second equati
This paper comprises the design and operation of mono-static backscatter lidar station based on a pulsed Nd: YAG laser that operates at multiple wavelengths. The three-color lidar laser transmitter is based on the collinear fundamental 1064 nm, second harmonic 532 nm and a third harmonic 355nm output of a Nd:YAG laser. The most important parameter of lidar especially daytime operations is the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) which gives some instructions in designing of lidar and it is often limit the effective range. The reason is that noises or interferences always badly affect the measured results. The inversion algorithms have been developed for the study of atmospheric aerosols. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of three-color channel re
... Show MoreBacterial strains were isolated from oil-contaminated soil, in 2018, these isolates were identified, and with the aim of finding out the ability of these isolates to degrede the oil compounds, the color change of medium which added to it isolates was read by the method of Pacto Bushnell Hans. Then the change in the petroleum compounds was read by gas chromatography, for the most effective isolates.
The nine isolated bacterial showed different degrees of color change, and the isolates (Pseudomonas, Bacillus, Micrococcus) outperformed the color change amount (78, 78, 77) %, respectively, compared to the control, and the three isolates together showed the best color change of 90.7. % Compared to the control, and the
... Show MoreEconomic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.
The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance
... Show More Purpose - The study aimed at evaluating the accounting system of the Iraqi political parties, which is applied according to legislative texts, and then the ability to provide accounting information to evaluate the strategic performance and control of the party's operational and financial performance.
Findings- The research found that the unified accounting system applied to political parties does not provide relevance informations to judge the performance of the political party, the researcher a proposal for an accounting system that provides the necessary information to measure and monitor the performance of Iraqi political parties can be presented. The